For the second time this month, the Oklahoma City Thunder face the Los Angeles Clippers.
The pregame narrative: OKC is tied for first in the Western Conference and should be able to cover a modest spread at home on Monday night. In my +350 SGP, I’m also fading a teased-up point total for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and looking for James Harden to do damage as a rebounder.
Check out my Clippers vs. Thunder same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 11.
Clippers vs. Thunder predictions
Go to full NBA betting markets
Parlay: Thunder -3.5 + Gilgeous-Alexander under 31.5 points + Harden over 5.5 rebounds (+350)
Thunder -3.5 (-190): I view OKC’s loss last night as a blip, and it won’t deter me from riding with the team on a back-to-back tonight.
The Thunder lost by 11 as 6.5-point favourites on Sunday night against a Golden State Warriors team that couldn’t miss from 3-point range (21-of-43, 49.0%). It happens. OKC is still a stellar team that has already roughed up Los Angeles once this month.
In L.A. on Nov. 2, the Thunder cruised to a 13-point victory. They are 7-3 ATS on the year and have an NBA-high average point differential (+12.8).
Credit the Clippers for going 3-0 on the road so far — winning as underdogs in each of those games — but the Thunder have been too good on a consistent basis for me to consider buying points in the other direction.
Also, OKC is 10-6 ATS on back-to-backs since the start of last season, per Team Rankings.
SGP legs
Gilgeous-Alexander under 31.5 points (-165): OKC doesn’t need a bloated point total from Gilgeous-Alexander to win.
How do I know that? The Thunder are 8-2 this year, while SGA is 1-9 against this line.
From a scoring standpoint, it’s been a bit of a slow start for last year’s MVP runner-up. SGA, who’s averaging 26.1 PPG, is shooting a career-low 26.4% from 3-point range on a career-high 5.3 attempts.
Defence hasn’t been an issue for the Clippers, who have the NBA’s fourth-best defensive rating this season. L.A. has held Gilgeous-Alexander under 31.5 points in seven consecutive meetings (dating back to October 2022).
Harden over 5.5 rebounds (-177): It’s difficult to whip up an SGP involving the Thunder and not back someone on the other team to snag a bunch of rebounds.
For as talented as OKC is, the team is not known as a stalwart on the glass. The Thunder have the NBA’s third-lowest rebounding rate (47.2%), which is exactly where they ranked last year.
Also, OKC is allowing the most rebounds per game to opposing guards (39.7), per NBA.com.
Harden is averaging 8.1 rebounds per game this year, which matches a career-high he set in the 2016-17 season. He’s cashed this bet in seven of 10 games, which includes a 13-rebound performance against OKC.
NBA picks made at 12:10 p.m. on 11/11/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.