The Dallas Mavericks may be without their top player against the Denver Nuggets on Sunday.
The pregame narrative: Luka Doncic is questionable for tonight but I still like the Mavericks to cover an alternate spread. I’m including Nikola Jokic and Kyrie Irving props picks to form a +290 SGP.
Check out my Mavericks vs. Nuggets same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 10.
Mavericks vs. Nuggets predictions
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Parlay: Mavericks +6.5 + Jokic over 9.5 assists + Irving over 23.5 points (+290)
Mavericks +6.5 (-165): According to the injury report, Doncic is a game-time decision with a groin injury. He was labelled as ‘iffy’ for tonight, per Rotowire, which doesn’t sound promising.
The prospect of Dallas missing its superstar doesn’t scare me like it once did, as the team has built a true contender around him. The Mavericks are …
- 7th in defensive rating (111.2)
- 10th in offensive rating (116.0)
- 2nd in turnovers per game (11.2)
That offensive rating has a lot to do with Doncic, but the other two stats are from team success and show the importance of strong depth and coaching.
Denver is rolling right now, winning four straight, but it has only covered this spread in two of nine games this season and Dallas should be no pushover — even if Doncic is out.
SGP legs
Jokic over 9.5 assists (-136): A big man getting this line should be crazy, but if you’ve watched Jokic play, you know he can smash this total.
In fact, he’s done so in five of the past six games. When he didn’t, he finished with nine assists in 29 minutes in a blowout win against the Utah Jazz.
As mentioned before, the Nuggets are on a bit of a winning streak, so they should continue to lean on Jokic.
His 32.9 player efficiency rating in 2021-2022 is the highest for a single season ever, and his 31.7 PER so far this season isn’t far behind.
- Jokic is averaging 11.3 assists per game
- Over the last six games, he’s averaged 13.5 assists
The Joker is already considered the best passing big man ever and he’s reliable against this line.
Irving over 23.5 points (-182): If Doncic is out, this will look a lot nicer so that is something worth monitoring.
Either way, I believe Irving will have to carry more of the load for Dallas tonight.
Irving averages 23.7 points per game on 50.6% from the field and 52.0% from 3-point range. That is ridiculous efficiency, and he cleared this line in each of the past four games in which he took more than 12 shots.
Any uptick in usage would be greatly beneficial to this leg of the parlay.
NBA picks made at 12:48 p.m. on 11/10/24.
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Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.