I’m fading James Harden and Ochai Agbaji when the Toronto Raptors play the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.
The pregame narrative: L.A. is on the second leg of a back-to-back and that’s part of the reason I expect Harden to go under his 3-point total. Agbaji, meanwhile, has carved out an interesting role for himself but gets a tough matchup.
Check out my Raptors vs. Clippers props for Nov. 9.
Raptors vs. Clippers props
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Best Bet: Harden under 2.5 threes (+105)
A decade ago, taking the under on a Harden 3-point line like this would be crazy. Now, not so much.
The veteran’s 35.2% usage rate is his highest since the 2019-20 season but he’s shooting a horrible 30.1% from deep, which is on pace to be the worst mark of his career.
Toronto isn’t a great defensive team and allows opponents to shoot a middling 35.8% from beyond the arc.
But most of the damage done against the Raptors from deep comes from the corner. According to Cleaning the Glass, Toronto allows opponents to shoot 46.2% on corner threes (29th in the NBA) and 33.0% from non-corner threes (fifth in the NBA).
Harden absolutely hates taking corner threes and has only attempted one all season compared to 70 non-corner threes. Last year he shot 40 corner threes and 444 non-corner threes. That’s staggering.
Not to mention the veteran played 35 minutes in a road win yesterday and will probably get a bit of a breather tonight back at home.
Key stat: Harden has gone under this mark in five of nine games.
Quick pick
Agbaji under 10.5 points (-120): Toronto doesn’t have a true power forward and often rolls with a four-guard lineup.
Immanuel Quickley is in line to return, meaning Agbaji will see some time at power forward.
The 6-foot-5 Kansas product is taking more threes but less will be available tonight. Without Quickley he is 6-2 against this line but had just three points in 25 minutes in the one game they’ve played together this year.
Dating back to last season, Agbaji is averaging 5.8 PPG with Quickley in the lineup and has fallen under this line in 10 straight games.
The Clippers also allow the fewest points per game to power forwards, according to Fantasy Pros.
Picks made at 10:24 a.m. ET 11/09/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.