Two teams with Super Bowl aspirations meet on Sunday Night Football when the Houston Texans host the Detroit Lions.
The pregame narrative: C.J. Stroud has been lights out at home and might be getting his No. 1 receiver back. Take the over on his passing total and also back Jahmyr Gibbs to rumble against Houston’s front.
Check out my Lions vs. Texans prop picks for Sunday Night Football on Nov. 10.
Lions vs. Texans prop picks
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Best Bet: Stroud over 228.5 passing yards (-113)
Is Stroud a house cat? We’re super early into the quarterback’s career but it’s starting to look like it.
Last year’s No. 2 overall pick has some staggering home/away splits:
- Home (10-2 record): 308.9 passing yards/game, 66.4% completion rate, 105.7 QBR
- Road (5-7 record): 211.7 passing yards/game, 60.6% completion rate, 87.9 QBR
With a near 100-yard delta between his average passing yards at NRG Stadium and away from it, Stroud has become quite predictive. This season, he’s 4-0 against this line at home and 1-5 on the road.
Stefon Diggs is out for the season but Nico Collins was cleared to return from the IR and practiced on Friday. He’s listed as questionable and would be a massive boost to a struggling offence.
But even if Collins is out, I like Stroud’s chances of clearing this line because Houston would likely be playing from behind.
The Lions are allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game (265.7) despite ranking fifth in defensive EPA per dropback, per RBSDM.com.
That’s what happens when Jared Goff and Co. are putting up a league-high 32.3 PPG.
Key stat: Stroud has gone over this mark in nine of his last 10 home games (playoffs included)
Quick pick
Gibbs over 59.5 rushing yards (-114): Detroit’s backfield is shaping up to be one of the best in recent memory.
Gibbs and David Montgomery are eating teams alive on the ground in large part due to an all-world offensive line.
Taking the over on either’s rushing total should be playable on Sunday against a middling Texans front but I like Gibbs for a few reasons:
- He is averaging 6.4 YPC to Montgomery’s 4.4
- Gibbs is 7-1 against this line (cleared in six straight)
- He has gone over 100 rushing yards in two of his last three games
Houston is giving up 4.7 yards per rush which is the ninth-highest mark in the NFL and again, if Detroit is leading, that should work in our favour.
Picks made at 12:13 p.m. ET 11/09/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.