Jalen Hurts is on a tear right now and looks like a great value to score in this week’s divisional clash in Dallas.
The pregame narrative: Hurts has racked up tons of red zone carries all season long and is my best bet to cross the goal line on Sunday. I also like Davante Adams to build off his touchdown from last Thursday and for George Kittle to remain a threat in what should be a more robust 49ers offence.
Check out the best NFL Week 10 TD picks for the upcoming games.
NFL Week 10 TD picks
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Best bet: Hurts anytime TD (-125)
Quarterbacks are rarely odds-on touchdown scorers, but Hurts is a very reasonable exception.
At the helm of an Eagles team that runs the ball more than anybody else (54.6%, per Team Rankings), Hurts is encouraged to regularly call his own number.
Sure, Saquon Barkley commands roughly twice as many carries, but they split up the goal line work much more evenly. Of Philly’s NFL-best 14 rushing touchdowns, Barkley has six and Hurts has eight.
For Sunday’s road game against the Dallas Cowboys, Barkley has -286 odds to score. That sure makes Hurts look like a bargain, doesn’t it?
As does the production Hurts has amassed with his legs in recent weeks.
Hurts has six rushing TDs over his past three games, cashing this bet in each of them. He also has 16 red zone carries in his past four games, versus just six red zone pass attempts in the same span.
Let me repeat that for emphasis. Over his past four games, Hurts’ volume of red zone carries (16) is almost triple his volume of red zone pass attempts (six). He’s always looking for the end zone, and he often finds it.
Key stat: Hurts’ 11 carries inside the five-yard line are the most among quarterbacks and is tied for the third-most among all ball carriers.
Quick picks
Kittle anytime TD (+114): Christian McCaffrey returns on Sunday, which instantly makes him the 49ers’ most likely player to score. But let’s not forget about Kittle.
The five-time Pro Bowl tight end has six TDs in just seven games. He’s also seen six targets inside the 10-yard line over the past four games.
McCaffrey’s presence should be a net positive for other hopeful San Francisco TD scorers, as the Niners should have an easier time moving the ball. When the defence keys on McCaffrey, Kittle should be one of the very next reads for Brock Purdy.
Adams anytime TD (+104): The Aaron-Rodgers-to-Davante-Adams connection looked as good as new last week. Adams turned 11 targets into seven catches for 91 yards — including a 37-yard TD reception.
That was Adams’ first TD catch since Week 2 and his first from Rodgers since Jan. 2, 2022 (when they were both on the Packers). I’m not giving up on the connection, though, and I think it has a chance to flourish again this week in Arizona.
The Cardinals rank 28th in defensive EPA per dropback, according to RBSDM.com. This is a matchup that Adams can thrive in.
And if you’ll allow me to reach back into history a bit here, Adams has scored a touchdown in nine of his past 16 games with Rodgers.
Picks made at 2:45 p.m. ET on 11/08/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.