Buckle up, because there are major College Football Playoff implications in this week’s showdown between the No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide and the No. 15 LSU Tigers.
The pregame narrative: This is the type of matchup the expanded playoff (love it or hate it) caters to. Both teams have everything on the line, and I’m looking at LSU to cover at home. In the prop market, I’m backing overs for Aaron Anderson and Germie Bernard.
Check out my top Alabama vs. LSU picks for this ranked Week 11 matchup.
Alabama vs. LSU picks
Go to full college football betting markets.
Best Bet: Anderson over 54.5 receiving yards yards (-106)
Anderson was too low on LSU’s star-studded depth chart to factor into the Tigers’ last matchup against the Crimson Tide, but I suspect things will be different this time around.
The redshirt sophomore still isn’t WR1 in Baton Rouge, but he’s been impressively consistent as WR2.
Anderson has three or more catches in all eight games, and he’s cleared the 60-yard threshold seven times. An 87.5% hit rate on this yardage total sounds pretty good to me.
Recently, Anderson has flashed his big-play potential and further cemented himself as a go-to option for quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. He has a 20-plus-yard touchdown reception in three of the past four games and is coming off a career-high 126 receiving yards.
Alabama’s defence is known to be stingy, allowing the 11th-fewest yards per pass attempt in Division I (5.9). Then again, LSU can counteract that with its excessive passing volume (60.7% pass play rate, fifth in the NCAA).
Oh, and can I interest you in a revenge game narrative?
Anderson has quite a history with both schools in this rivalry. He initially committed to LSU in December 2020, then took a visit to Alabama the following June. He flipped his commitment to the Tide in October 2021 and enrolled as a true freshman for the 2022 season — before transferring to LSU that winter.
I don’t know the story there, but I’m sure he’d love to stick it to Bama. At this number, that is well within his reach.
Key stat: Anderson has cashed this bet in seven of eight games while averaging 76.8 yards/game.
Quick picks
LSU +3.5 (-127): LSU’s season-opening loss to USC hasn’t aged well, but the Tigers seem to have figured a lot of things out since then on defence.
In seven games since, they’ve allowed just 208.9 passing yards/game and have forced 12 turnovers. On the season, their 3.9 yards/rush on defence ranks 43rd in the country.
A night game in Death Valley is one of the best atmospheres in the sport. So it should surprise no one that LSU is 14-4 ATS at home since the 2022 season.
Alabama has only played two road games since the back half of September, and it lost both outright as a favourite (at Tennessee, at Vanderbilt).
Bernard over 54.5 receiving yards (-124): Like Anderson, Bernard isn’t the top dog in his WR room. But as opposing defences scramble to cover freshman phenom Ryan Williams, Bernard has seen his opportunities tick up.
Look at Bernard’s game-by-game averages when we split his season in half:
- Games 1-4: 5.3 targets, 3.3 catches, 37.5 yards
- Games 5-8: 6.0 targets, 4.3 catches, 78.3 yards
Maybe the Washington transfer has finally settled in with his new team, or maybe the Williams effect has led to more favourable opportunities. Perhaps both are true.
Either way, he looks like a great value at this number.
Picks made at 11:20 a.m. on 11/08/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.