I’ve got a pair of prop bets from Thursday’s slim three-game NBA slate.
The pregame narrative: Anfernee Simons is the top dog in Portland and I expect him to torch the San Antonio Spurs tonight. Elsewhere, I’m fading Anthony Edwards from deep a tough matchup.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Thursday, Nov. 7.
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Best bet: Simons over 21.5 points (-120)
Simons is a streaky player but he’s Portland’s No. 1 option and gets a nice matchup.
The seventh-year shooting guard leads the team in points (19.5) and field goal attempts (16.9) per game.
He’s coming off a 24-point outing against the New Orleans Pelicans and had 20 against the Phoenix Suns before that. Overall, Simons has cleared this total in four of eight games.
Those aren’t eye-popping numbers, but keep in mind he’s shooting 38.5% from the field and 31.0% from deep. That’s well below his career averages and marks from last year, so some positive regression should be on the horizon.
The Spurs are a great slump-buster, especially for players who like to let it fly from deep.
San Antonio is 10th in defensive rating but that’s because Victor Wembanyama makes anything near the rim a no-fly zone. On the perimeter, the Spurs are allowing opponents to cash in at the sixth-highest rate (37.8%) in the NBA.
Simons attempts 8.3 threes per game and shot 38.5% from beyond the arc last year.
San Antonio is also on a back-to-back, so we’ll see how that affects its defensive rotation and Wembanyama’s minutes.
Key stat: Simons averaged 23.6 PPG last season and scored 40 points in his only game against the Spurs.
Quick picks
Edwards under 3.5 threes (-120): Fading Edwards is risky, but this is the spot to do it.
The 3-5 Chicago Bulls might need to re-think their defensive scheme but right now they’re locking up the perimeter and getting demolished in the paint.
Chicago is ceding the most paint points per game (57.3) with the fourth-lowest opponent 3-point shooting percentage (31.3%). Teams aren’t voluntarily going inside as the Bulls’ opponents are taking 39.5 threes a game, the fifth-most in basketball.
There is a risk that Edwards might clear this strictly based on volume but I trust Chicago’s perimeter defence to keep him at bay.
There is also a good chance of a Minnesota Timberwolves blowout, which would mean fewer minutes for Edwards.
Picks made at 8:13 a.m. ET on 11/07/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.