I’m fading Ja’Marr Chase and am backing Mark Andrews in Thursday’s AFC North showdown.
The pregame narrative: The Baltimore Ravens (6-3) host the Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) in a game with huge implications. Tee Higgins and Isaiah Likely are both battling injuries which is a big influence on these prop bets.
Check out my Bengals vs. Ravens prop picks for Thursday Night Football on Nov. 7.
Bengals vs. Ravens prop picks
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Best Bet: Chase under 81.5 receiving yards (-115)
Chase had a field day against the Ravens in Week 5, catching 10 of 12 targets for 193 yards and two touchdowns.
So you would think with Higgins (quadriceps, DNP Tuesday) unlikely to play he should easily smash a total asking for less than half of that production. Well, I don’t think it’s that simple.
Cincinnati’s WR1 has consistently struggled when Higgins is sidelined, averaging just 65.8 yards per game over 12 contests during his career.
This year, Chase has gone under 81.5 receiving yards in all four games without Higgins while averaging 48.5 yards. In the five games with Higgins, he cleared this line three times while averaging 104.6 yards.
Baltimore’s secondary has been awful, allowing the third-most receiving yards per game to WRs, but the Ravens are going to throw the kitchen sink at stopping Chase.
That’s what other teams have done and it’s forced Joe Burrow to look elsewhere. For example, tight end Mike Gesicki has outpaced Chase in air yards when Higgins is sidelined (324 to 173).
Needless to say, this bet hinges on Higgins’ availability, so keep an eye on that as we move closer to game time.
Key stat: Chase has gone under this number in seven straight games without Higgins.
Quick pick
Andrews over 42.5 receiving yards (-115): Even if Likely (hamstring, DNP Tuesday) plays I would expect Andrews to clear this total. But this smells like a smash play if the third-year tight end can’t suit up.
Andrews was practically a non-factor to start the season but got back in the mix against the Bengals in Week 5 with a 55-yard performance.
He’s been involved in every game since, clearing this line once while landing on 41 yards another time.
The Bengals are giving up the eighth-most receiving yards per game to TEs and Andrews has routinely torched them, averaging 54.7 yards per game in 12 contests against his divisional rival.
Cincinnati’s offence is humming which means Baltimore should have to throw the ball, rather than a heavy ground attack.
Picks made at 1:16 p.m. ET 11/06/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.