After a thrilling showdown earlier this season, the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens get set for a rematch on Thursday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Baltimore and Cincinnati combined for 79 points in their Week 5 game, and I think Joe Burrow will lead the Bengals into the end zone at least a couple of times this week. Even so, Baltimore looks like a worthwhile ATS pick.
Check out my Bengals vs. Ravens best bets for the Week 10 matchup on Thursday Night Football.
Bengals vs. Ravens best bets
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Best bet: Burrow over 1.5 passing TDs (-152)
I know there’s a lot of juice on this prop, but I’m willing to pay it as Burrow tries to will his Bengals back into the AFC playoff picture.
Cincinnati will need a big performance from its star quarterback, who threw for five touchdowns this past week in a win over the Raiders.
Burrow now has multiple TD passes in six of nine starts, totalling 20 TDs on the year.
His best performance came against the Ravens in Week 5 when the former No. 1 pick completed 30-of-39 passes for 392 yards and five TDs. If you’re going to get to Baltimore, it’s almost certainly going to have to be through the air — as Burrow demonstrated convincingly.
The Ravens have the No. 1 run defence in terms of yards allowed per game and per rush. But their NFL ranks against the pass are on the other end of the spectrum:
- 32nd in pass yards/game
- 28th in pass TDs
- 27th in net yards/attempt
Zack Moss, who sat out Week 9 with a neck injury, logged a non-practice-participant estimate on Monday. He was the Bengals’ primary goal-line rusher through the first eight weeks, and his absence would increase the likelihood that Cincy tries to score through the air in goal-to-go situations.
Burrow is playing some of his best football right now, posting a career-high success rate (53.1%) and the third-highest passer rating in the NFL (108.1).
I expect the fifth-year QB to take matters into his own hands when the Bengals are in scoring territory.
Key stat: Burrow is on a career-high pace for passing TDs, averaging 2.2 per game.
Quick pick
Ravens -5.5 (-120): After blowing a 10-point lead as home favourites in Week 2 (against the Raiders), the Ravens have been beasts against the spread.
Baltimore is 5-1-1 ATS from Week 3 onward, which includes a win over Cincinnati as a -2.5 road favourite.
The Ravens have won each of their past three home games by a touchdown or more. In that span, they’ve racked up a +63 point differential. They’ve also covered the spread in three straight meetings against the Bengals.
Picks made at 1:05 p.m. ET 11/05/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.