The Toronto Maple Leafs welcome their biggest rival, the Boston Bruins, into town tonight.
The pregame narrative: Toronto lost in overtime to Boston in Game 7 last season and again a few weeks ago. To make matters worse for the Leafs, Auston Matthews is unavailable tonight. I expect the Bruins to continue dominating their rival and am also backing Mitch Marner and David Pastrnak to produce.
Check out our Maple Leafs picks vs. Bruins for the game on Nov. 5.
Maple Leafs picks vs. Bruins
Go to full NHL betting markets.
Best Bet: Bruins moneyline (+132)
Toronto scraped and clawed its way to a series-deciding Game 7 last year … and lost.
But things weren’t nearly as close in the regular season. Boston has won eight straight games against its rival outside of the playoffs, with three of those coming by three-plus goals.
The Leafs can’t seem to figure out Jeremy Swayman or the Bruins’ defence and are averaging just 1.7 goals per game against them in the last 10 meetings (playoffs included).
Without Matthews, who is still the world’s best goalscorer despite his slow start, I can’t imagine Toronto having an offensive outburst.
Then there’s the question of goaltending, with neither Joseph Woll nor Anthony Stolarz being confirmed at the time of writing.
Woll has looked shaky so far with an .892 SV% across three starts and Stolarz has cooled off after his red-hot start, allowing 10 goals in his last three outings.
Key stat: Toronto has lost five of its last seven games.
Quick picks
Marner and Pastrnak 1+ point each (+107): Neither team is playing immaculate hockey right now but I love the value of pairing these superstar wingers to find the stat sheet.
Let’s start with Marner, who has registered a point in five straight games. He started that streak with a three-assist game against the Bruins on Oct. 26 and has 14 points in 13 games on the year.
The 27-year-old won’t get to play with Matthews tonight but will still get top-line minutes and significant power play time. The PP isn’t performing at an elite pace but that’s bound to change at some point.
Marner has played at a 1.27 points per game pace over the last three seasons, notching points in nine of his last 11 regular season games against Boston.
As for Pastrnak, the man is a straight-up Leaf killer.
He scored the overtime winner in Game 7 and in their first meeting this season and has 62 points (30 goals) in 50 career games against Toronto.
NHL picks made at 10:21 a.m. ET on 11/05/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.