For the second consecutive Monday, the Toronto Raptors face the Denver Nuggets.
The pregame narrative: Last week, Nikola Jokic filled the net against Toronto in an overtime win. I like Jokic to put up big numbers at home tonight, while Raptors point guard Davion Mitchell has some solid value on his assists prop.
Check out my Raptors vs. Nuggets props for Nov. 4.
Raptors vs. Nuggets props
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Best Bet: Jokic over 38.5 points/assists (-121)
Scoring depth has been a significant issue for the Nuggets so far. They rank 25th in effective field goal percentage (51.2%), and none of their bench players average more than 8.8 points per game.
What does that mean for Jokic? A much heartier shot volume than he’s accustomed to in order to pick up the slack.
So far this year, Jokic is trending toward career-highs in shots (19.3/game), attempted threes (4.5/game) and points (29.8/game).
For a guy who ranks 10th all-time in eFG% (59.2), an uptick in volume has a particularly strong correlation to an uptick in production.
I’m skeptical of Jokic keeping up this shooting pace all year, but it feels like a necessity right now for a Nuggets team that’s trying to figure out where else to draw offence from. That’ll be especially tricky tonight with Jamal Murray (concussion) on the sideline.
Jokic dropped 40 points on the Raptors last week and added four assists, but I could see him taking on a greater responsibility as a passer with Murray out.
Over his past five games, Jokic has cleared this number four times while averaging 32.6 points and 9.2 assists.
Key stat: Since the start of last year, Jokic has gone over 38.5 PA in 13 of 22 games without Murray.
Quick pick
Mitchell over 6.5 assists (+115): This is a great spot to target Mitchell, who’s playing big minutes as the Raptors’ starting point guard.
Over his past five games, Mitchell has averaged 7.4 assists on 32.1 minutes of action. He’s tallied at least five assists in each of those matchups and cashed this bet three times.
Mitchell fell just short of this line when he last faced the Nuggets, finishing with six assists to go with a season-high 16 points. He was feeling himself as a shooter that night (5-of-10, including 3-of-6 from deep), so maybe he’ll be more keen to pass if the shots aren’t dropping this time around.
Denver has allowed the most assists per game to opponents this season (29.7), as well as the third-most assists to point guards (11.3), per Betting Pros.
Picks made at 12:20 p.m. ET 11/04/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.