Joe Flacco and Jonathan Taylor headline my Sunday Night football prop bets.
The pregame narrative: The Indianapolis Colts made a significant quarterback change this week when they benched Anthony Richardson for Flacco. I expect the veteran QB to have a busy night and am targeting Taylor in the receiving game.
Check out my Colts vs. Vikings prop picks for Sunday Night Football on Nov. 3.
Colts vs. Vikings prop picks
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Best Bet: Flacco over 22.5 completions (-136)
Flacco may be 39 years old but he’s still a gunslinger.
The veteran signal-caller has done nothing but perform when called upon the last few seasons, winning a handful of games with the Cleveland Browns last year before going 2-1 with the Colts this season (one relief appearance).
In his two starts with Indianapolis, he’s averaging 27.5 completions a game on 41 attempts.
The Vikings aren’t a team to run on, allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per contest with the lowest defensive EPA per rush, according to RBSDM.com.
They’re not really a team to pass on, either, but I think the Colts will need to find ways to get the ball out, and quickly, in prime time.
Brian Flores has been dialling it up for Minnesota, with the highest blitz rate (41.4%) and pressure rate (30.2%). That means there won’t be time for long-winded plays to develop and, I think, will force Flacco into completing plenty of checkdowns.
Also, if the Vikings (5-point favourites) get up early, it could force the Colts to abandon the run entirely.
Key stat: Since the start of last season, Flacco is 6-2 against this line when starting a game.
Quick pick
Taylor over 15.5 receiving yards (-110): Taylor only has one game under his belt with Flacco this season but the results were promising.
He caught a season-high three passes for 20 yards in addition to adding 88 yards and a score on the ground. Flacco will need to get the ball out quickly tonight so I can see a similar level of volume for Indy’s bell-cow back.
Even without Flacco, this is a line Taylor has cleared or flirted with in most games. He’s logged 20-plus receiving yards in three of five starts and had 12 in another.
The Vikings are allowing 36.4 receiving yards to running backs per game, according to Pro Football Reference.
Picks made at 1:45 p.m. ET 11/03/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.