The Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: I’m expecting a lot of offence in this game so I’m taking the over as my best bet. I also like prop picks on starting quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield.
Check out my Buccaneers vs. Chiefs best bets for Monday Night Football on Nov. 4.
Buccaneers vs. Chiefs best bets
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Best Bet: Over 45.5 points (-110)
Even though both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are sidelined with injuries, the gameplan stays the same in Tampa: Let Baker sling it.
Last week, in his first game without his star receivers, Mayfield and the Buccaneers put up 432 yards of offence which led to 26 points. I do expect less without Evans and Godwin, of course, but the Bucs still look like one of the more dangerous offensive teams.
Tampa Bay records the fifth most yards (404.6) and fourth most points (29.4) per game.
Kansas City’s defence has been amazing but I see that as a reason for this lower total which I am willing to buy low on.
The Buccaneers’ defence has been terrible so I can also picture Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offence carrying a lot of the load.
Key stat: Tampa Bay allows the second most yards (405.5) and fifth most points (26.4) per game. Five straight Bucs games have gone over this mark with an average of 64.4 total points.
Quick picks
Mahomes over 248.5 passing yards (-113): Mahomes has been disappointing to an extent this season with an 8:9 TD-to-INT ratio but if there’s any team to shine against, it’s the Buccaneers.
The Chiefs QB has topped this line in two of his last three games and gets an advantageous matchup in Week 9.
I expect Tampa Bay to keep pace so Mahomes should be willing to pass for a majority of the game.
The Bucs’ defence allows the third most passing yards (255.4) per game with three of the last four starting QBs blowing past this mark.
Spencer Rattler was the lone signal-caller to fall short but barely as he had 243 passing yards in his NFL debut for the Saints in Week 6.
Mayfield over 229.5 passing yards (-121): This is a very achievable line for Mayfield even with the injuries and the Chiefs’ elite defence.
The former first-overall pick topped 325 passing yards in four of his last five games and is averaging 273.6 per game on the season.
Tampa Bay ranks first in third-down conversion rate (52.5%) allowing the offence to stay on the field and consistently put up big numbers.
Picks made at 1:08 p.m. ET 11/03/2024.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.