The Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Clippers played three high-scoring matchups last year, but I’m expecting something different in their first meeting of 2024-25.
The pregame narrative: A teased-up under is one component of my +290 SGP for Saturday night’s game. I also like James Harden to continue firing as a scorer and for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to go under his assist total.
Check out my Thunder vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 2.
Thunder vs. Clippers predictions
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Parlay: Under 227.5 points + Harden over 21.5 points + Gilgeous-Alexander under 6.5 assists (+290)
Under 227.5 points (-220): The Clippers and Thunder went above this total in all three matchups last year, but some key contributors from those games won’t be on the court tonight.
Kawhi Leonard (knee) is still out, while Paul George is now employed by the Philadelphia 76ers. Offence has been a challenge for L.A., a team that ranks 21st in offensive rating and 20th in points per game.
OKC’s offence has been sharper, but it also has the No. 1 defensive rating in the NBA. L.A. ranks No. 7 in defensive rating, so I think that aspect of the matchup will win out.
The under is a combined 6-4 in OKC and L.A.’s games this season.
SGP legs
Harden over 21.5 points (-157): Even if this game isn’t an offensive masterclass, Harden should be able to get his.
In a Big Three with Leonard and George last year, Harden didn’t have as many opportunities to put up shots. But the Clippers are decidedly Harden’s team right now, and he’s taking advantage on the offensive end.
The three-time scoring champ has averaged 23.8 PPG on 19.0 shots.
Here’s one way to frame it: Harden only averaged 11.4 total shots last year, and he’s averaging 9.4 3-point shots so far in the new season.
Harden has cleared this total in four of five games.
Gilgeous-Alexander under 6.5 assists (-200): Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t a selfish star, but he’s not a high-volume passer, either. He set a career-high in assists per game last year with 6.2.
This isn’t a matchup where I expect SGA to have an outsized assist total. L.A. has allowed the third-fewest assists per game this year, per NBA.com.
Dating back to October 2022, SGA has gone under 6.5 assists in five of his past six matchups against the Clippers. And he’s hit the under in three of his past four games this season.
Picks made at 12:55 p.m. on 11/02/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.