After a fourth consecutive loss last night, the Toronto Raptors host the Sacramento Kings on a back-to-back on Saturday night.
The pregame narrative: Toronto has fared well against the spread as an underdog, but I like Sacramento on a teased-down line tonight. RJ Barrett’s hot shooting start is worth tapping into, while Domantas Sabonis is the latest big man the Raptors will try to contain on the glass.
Check out my Kings vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 2.
Kings vs. Raptors predictions
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Parlay: Kings -4.5 + Barrett over 1.5 threes + Sabonis under 14.5 rebounds (+375)
Kings -4.5 (-182): The Raptors are modestly exceeding expectations so far, and by that I mean they’re losing consistently but covering a lot of underdog spreads.
Toronto is 1-5 on the season — starting with a 30-point blowout loss on opening night — but the team is 5-1 ATS. With that in mind, I almost teased up the Raptors’ spread (-7.5) by a few points.
But the ATS win streak is bound to end at some point, and I see at least as much merit in buying a few points on the Kings’ side. Sacramento is 26-18-1 ATS as a road team since the start of last year, which is the fourth-best rate in the NBA in that span, per Team Rankings.
The Kings are 2-0-1 ATS as favourites so far. The Raptors have only covered a +4.5 spread in two of six games.
SGP legs
Barrett over 1.5 threes (-157): It’s only been a few games, but when the Raptors have needed a spark from 3-point range, Barrett has been the one providing it.
The Mississauga-born shooting guard is 9-for-17 (52.9%) beyond the arc through three games, cashing this bet each time.
Though he’s never been a high-volume shooter from deep, Barrett has averaged 1.7 made threes on 35.2% shooting since the 2020-21 season. He’s off to a great start right now on a team that’s collectively shooting 31.5% from deep … so why not keep firing?
Sacramento has allowed the fifth-most 3-point attempts to opponents this season (40.8/game), which suggests Barrett will see enough opportunities to hit this over.
Sabonis under 14.5 rebounds (-155): Sabonis led the NBA with a whopping 13.7 rebounds per game last year, so he’s more than capable of selling this parlay with a big night on the glass.
But until further notice, I like fading opposing big men against the Raptors when they have sky-high rebounding totals.
Toronto hasn’t allowed anyone to go over 14.5 rebounds this year, and only one player even got to 14. Players to go below that total include Nikola Jokic, Anthony Davis and Rudy Gobert.
The Raptors have allowed the second-fewest rebounds so far, and they have the league’s highest rebounding rate (54.7%).
Sabonis hasn’t gone over this number yet this season and likely won’t tonight. Also, since the start of last year, he’s finished under 14.5 rebounds in 12 of 16 games on zero rest.
Picks made at 9:05 a.m. on 11/02/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.