It’s a busy Friday night in the NBA and I’m serving up three prop picks for the nine-game slate.
The pregame narrative: The plays are on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, DeMar DeRozan and Evan Mobley.
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Best bet: Gilgeous-Alexander under 28.5 points (-110)
Oklahoma City is scoring six fewer points per game than last season.
Chet Holmgren is averaging five more points in his sophomore season.
And the Thunder have only needed Gilgeous-Alexander for more than 30 minutes twice in four games.
Gilgeous-Alexander has never been a great 3-point shooter, and certainly not a volume-based long-range chucker, but he’s averaging a whopping five more per game than last season.
The early returns haven’t been great: 27.3% on 8.3 attempts. That has sunk his field goal percentage to a career-low mark.
All of the above explains his early scoring dip.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s usage remains sky-high (sixth in the NBA). But poor efficiency over fewer minutes has predictably led to a scoring decline for the OKC guard who averaged 30-plus points in back-to-back seasons.
He has one 30-plus point game under his belt and more are certainly coming for the gifted scorer who gets to the free-throw line at an elite rate.
But I’m good to fade him on a 28.5 total in a game with blowout potential.
As of early Friday afternoon, the Thunder are 11.5-point favourites against the Portland Trail Blazers.
They have the best defensive rating in the NBA by far. This game could be over early, leading to a lot of fourth-quarter resting for Oklahoma City’s starters.
Key stat: Gilgeous-Alexander is 1-3 against this line and point guards have gone under this number in all five games versus Portland.
Quick picks
DeRozan over 29.5 points/rebounds/assists (-120): The 35-year-old veteran remains a steady scorer, dropping 20-plus points through his first four games with the Sacramento Kings.
There are more mouths to feed on Sacramento than what DeRozan experienced with the Chicago Bulls last season but that hasn’t affected his scoring.
It might, especially if his shot volume doesn’t uptick, but DeRozan is getting major minutes (37.0 per night) and De’Aaron Fox has appeared to be fine taking on less offensively.
Fox’s scoring is down, leading to DeRozan dropping 23.0 points per game and Domantas Sabonis contributing a career-high mark.
DeRozan has topped this line in three of four games and has been well above it in each of the last nine seasons.
Friday’s matchup against the Atlanta Hawks has the highest projected total of the night.
Atlanta is allowing the third-most points per game and both teams are playing at a top-10 pace, according to StatMuse.
Mobley over 15.5 points (-118): The fourth-year forward is off to a strong start for the 5-0 Cleveland Cavaliers.
Mobley has topped this line in four of five games, averaging a career-best 19.2 PPG.
The Cavaliers have several offensive options but that hasn’t stopped Mobley’s usage rate from rising significantly this season.
He’s an efficient scorer who doesn’t need a ton of shots to get to this number and he’s been dynamite from the charity stripe.
The Orlando Magic are without star Paolo Banchero, who rebounds well and his absence could create some easy opportunities at the basket for Mobley.
Picks made at 12:45 p.m. on 11/01/2024.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.