LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers visit Scotiabank Arena tonight to face the Toronto Raptors.
The pregame narrative: Scottie Barnes’ absence changes some things for the Raptors, and it should mean RJ Barrett takes on greater offensive responsibilities. I’m backing Barrett tonight while fading Anthony Davis on the glass.
Check out my Lakers vs. Raptors props for Nov. 1.
Lakers vs. Raptors props
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Best Bet: Davis under 13.5 rebounds (-130)
Davis is among the best rebounders in the NBA, averaging 12.5 RPG in 2022-23 and 12.6 RPG last year. But even for him, this is a sizeable number to clear.
The Raptors, believe it or not, have been in junkyard dog mode on the glass so far. They have the highest rebounding rate in the NBA (55.3%), as well as the second-highest offensive rebound rate (40.2%).
It’s only been five games, so things can change. But for now, the group has plenty of on-the-glass contributors, as eight players are averaging at least 3.5 RPG.
Jakob Poeltl leads the way (12.6 RPG), and at 7 feet and 245 pounds, he at least has the size to contend with Davis down low.
Barnes’ absence won’t help Toronto, but again, there are a lot of depth rebounders — like Bruno Fernando, Chris Boucher and Ochai Agbaji — who are putting in work.
Another factor to consider is that Davis might see a reduced workload if the game gets out of hand. Los Angeles is an 8.5-point favourite, and Davis is listed on the injury report as “probable” with right hip soreness.
Also, AD went under this number in both matchups against Toronto last year — and those came without Poeltl on the floor.
Key stat: Through five games, only one player has gone over 13.5 rebounds against the Raptors (Charlotte’s Nick Richards, 14). Players such as Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert and Jarrett Allen all went under.
Quick pick
Barrett over 30.5 points/assists (-113): With Barnes out for a few weeks and Immanuel Quickley still doubtful to play, the floor should be wide open for Barrett to claim alpha dog status in Toronto.
The Mississauga native dealt with an injury of his own through training camp and missed the first three games. But he’s responded well since then.
Barrett had 20 points and three assists (29 minutes) in his season debut on Monday. Two nights later, he posted 31 points and eight assists in 33 minutes.
Keep in mind that Barnes didn’t play Wednesday, which gave Barrett more opportunities to facilitate while maintaining a healthy shot volume.
Since joining the Raptors, Barrett has averaged 30.1 points/assists in 10 games without Barnes. He’s cashed this prop in four of his past seven.
It’s a small sample, but the Lakers are allowing the fourth-most assists per game so far, which is why I like that component in a combo prop.
Picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET 11/01/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.