There are several stars in action for tonight’s four-game NBA slate.
The pregame narrative: I’m targeting three of them, recommending plays on Ja Morant, Jalen Green and Kevin Durant.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Oct. 31.
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Best bet: Morant over 21.5 points (-107)
My biggest worry is Morant’s availability on a back-to-back. But we’ll get our stake back if the Grizzlies elect to sit their star point guard.
Morant is averaging 19.0 points through four games. He hasn’t topped 24 and scored a total of 30 in his last two games.
A significant drop in minutes is hurting his scoring output (he’s been held under 30 each game), but his per-36-minute-scoring average is also down four points from his last two full seasons.
That dip can be chalked up to poor shooting. Morant is shooting a miserable 16.7% from long range and his field goal percentage is down 5% from his career average.
Now on to the good news.
Morant has been aggressive, getting to the line at a near-career-high rate on 83.3% shooting. And he did top this line in his first two games.
The talented 25-year-old is bound to start upping his production, and the Milwaukee Bucks represent a juicy matchup.
Milwaukee defends the point guard position poorly. That was the case last season as well. Replacing Jrue Holiday with Damian Lillard has tremendously impacted its ability on that side of the ball.
The Bucks, according to Betting Pros, are allowing the most points per game to PGs. Last season, they ranked third-worst.
Also helping Morant’s outlook: Fellow guard Desmond Bane left Wednesday’s game with an oblique injury, meaning he could be limited Thursday if he doesn’t outright sit.
Key stat: Morant averaged 25-plus points in each of the last three seasons.
Quick picks
Durant over 32.5 points/rebounds (-120): There’s risk that Bradley Beal sits, as he’s officially questionable with an elbow injury.
This looks like a smash play if Beal is out but I still like it even if he does suit up.
Durant averaged 35.6 points/rebounds in 26 games without Beal last season, their first together as Phoenix Suns teammates.
He had season highs of 31 points and nine rebounds in the one game Beal missed this season.
Durant is playing great and gets the Los Angeles Clippers on a back-to-back. He’s dropping a team-leading 29.0 PPG and adding 7.0 rebounds, matching his career average.
The veteran forward had 32 points/rebounds in the Suns’ season opener against L.A. and has topped this line every game since.
Green over 3.5 threes (+112): The Dallas Mavericks have been torched by shooting guards and tonight they’ll be tasked with stopping one of the league’s hottest ones.
Green is averaging 28.8 points, powered by his 4.8 threes per game. Only two players are averaging more triples and he’s attempting a whopping 11.5, topping all but four guys.
The 22-year-old Houston Rocket has beaten this line in three of four games and landed on three the one time he fell short.
No team allows more points to SGs than the Mavericks, per Betting Pros.
Picks made at 1:26 p.m. on 10/31/2024.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.