The Los Angeles Dodgers have another chance to win the World Series tonight.
The pregame narrative: The New York Yankees staved off elimination yesterday but I think a gentleman’s sweep is in order. Back L.A. to win, Mookie Betts to record a hit, and fade Gerrit Cole on an alternate strikeout total.
Check out my Dodgers vs. Yankees same-game parlay predictions for Game 5 of the World Series on Oct. 30.
Yankees vs. Dodgers SGP predictions
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Parlay: Dodgers moneyline + Cole under 5.5 strikeouts + Betts over 0.5 hits (+275)
Dodgers moneyline (+130): New York’s bats exploded for 11 runs last night after combining for just seven across the first three games.
With Cole on the mound and a little momentum in their favour, taking the Yankees might seem like the right play.
But the Dodgers have been the better team offensively this postseason and have their own stud on the bump.
Jack Flaherty posted a 3.10 ERA this season and was solid in the World Series opener, giving up two runs over 5.2 IP while striking out six. He had held New York scoreless through five before Giancarlo Stanton blasted a ball out of play.
I trust Flaherty to put Los Angeles in a good position early and believe Dave Roberts can work his elite bullpen from there onward.
The Dodgers are 9-3 since facing elimination in the NLDS while averaging 6.3 runs per game.
SGP legs
Cole under 5.5 strikeouts (-190): Cole isn’t at the height of his powers and Los Angeles has been incredibly difficult to retire on strikes this postseason.
Fading the 2023 AL Cy Young winner at this number feels automatic.
Luis Gil threw 4.0 innings yesterday and recorded just one strikeout. Both Yankees starters before that — Clark Schmidt and Carlos Rodon — logged three while Cole had four punchouts in Game 1 last Friday.
Overall, opposing starters are 1-14 against this line versus Los Angeles in the playoffs.
Cole should have a longer leash than most starters but he’s thrown five-plus innings three times this playoffs and hasn’t cleared this line once.
In fact, he hasn’t even gotten to five strikeouts.
Betts over 0.5 hits (-278): There are a few players on L.A.’s roster who have Cole’s number.
Kike Hernandez (.391) and Freddie Freeman (.348) are both batting well over .300 with 25-plus plate appearances while Betts is 7-for-20 (.350).
Taking any of those guys to record a hit is playable but Betts has just one strikeout in 20 ABs against Cole. That’s the difference for me.
Betts has a hit in seven of his last eight games and is batting .364 in that span.
Picks made at 11:30 a.m. on 10/30/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.