Two teams heading in opposite directions meet on Thursday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: The Houston Texans (6-2) lead the AFC South while the New York Jets (2-6) have lost five straight. Injuries to Houston’s receiving corps have the Texans as slight underdogs, but I’m staying away from backing a side. Instead, take the under and roll with Joe Mixon.
Check out my Texans vs. Jets best bets for the Week 9 matchup on Thursday Night Football.
Texans vs. Jets best bets
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Best bet: Mixon over 77.5 rushing yards (-118)
Mixon is as close to a bell-cow back as you’re going to get in the modern NFL.
The first-year Texan toted the ball 30 times for 159 yards in his debut before getting injured the following game. Since returning to the lineup on Oct. 13, he’s put up 100-plus rushing yards in three straight while receiving 25 carries in back-to-back games.
Mixon gashed the Indianapolis Colts for 102 yards his last time out and they’re one of the NFL’s better teams at stopping the run, ranking seventh in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per rush.
The Jets, meanwhile, rank 21st and have allowed the 10th-most rushing yards to tailbacks.
Giving the ball to Mixon early and often seems like a no-brainer — especially with Nico Collins out and Stefon Diggs doubtful.
Key stat: Excluding the game where he left early with an injury, Mixon is 4-0 against this line while averaging 119.5 rushing yards per game.
Quick pick
Under 42 points (-110): How often have we seen ugly Thursday Night Football games?
It seems like more often than not fans are subjected to a slog of an appetizer before Sunday’s main course, and with Houston banged up and New York being New York, I expect that to continue.
Aaron Rodgers and Co. are putting up the eighth-fewest points (18.8) and ninth-fewest yards (310.6) per game, and DeMeco Ryans has Houston’s defence flying.
The Texans rank eighth in defensive EPA per play and seventh in pressure rate.
And while I expect Mixon to churn, I don’t think it’ll lead to many points.
Houston’s home/away splits under C.J. Stroud are stark: He has a 106.3 passer rating at home while putting up 24.0 PPG and a 90.5 passer rating on the road (21.5 PPG).
Picks made at 12:25 p.m. ET 10/29/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.