The New Orleans Pelicans take on the Steph Curry-less Golden State Warriors in San Francisco tonight.
The pregame narrative: Without Curry in the lineup, I expect New Orleans to at least cover a teased-up spread. Prop bets on Brandon Ingram and Trayce Jackson-Davis round out this +310 SGP.
Check out my Pelicans vs. Warriors same-game parlay predictions for Oct. 29.
Pelicans vs. Warriors predictions
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Parlay: Pelicans +4.5 + Ingram over 19.5 points + Jackson-Davis over 5.5 rebounds (+310)
Pelicans +4.5 (-250): Curry might be in his 16th season but he’s still undoubtedly the best player on the Warriors. There’s no excuse for the Pelicans to leave Chase Center without a win tonight, but bank a few points with them just to be safe.
New Orleans is missing Trey Murphy III but still has its top dogs available with Ingram, Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum. That’s a competent trio that should completely dictate the pace.
Last year, the Pelicans went 33-22 when Zion and Ingram played, according to StatMuse.
Golden State, meanwhile, went 3-5 without Curry with wins over the Utah Jazz (twice) and San Antonio Spurs. Those are two of the worst teams in basketball and I don’t trust Golden State to perform against a playoff-calibre team like New Orleans.
SGP legs
Ingram over 19.5 points (+105): This should be a dream matchup for Ingram.
Golden State was one of the worst teams at defending the midrange last season, according to Cleaning the Glass. It allowed opponents to shoot 46.2% from that area of the court, which ranked 28th in front of only the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers.
Ingram loves to take shots from there and has ranked in the 98th percentile or higher for midrange shooting frequency over the last three seasons.
The veteran small forward hasn’t been at his best to start the season but still cleared this line in two of three games while shooting 46.7% from the field.
He’s also averaging a team-high 20.0 field goal attempts per game, which I love to see.
Jackson-Davis over 5.5 rebounds (-200): I’m expecting big things out of Jackson-Davis in his sophomore season.
The Indiana product split time between the Warriors and their G-League affiliate last year but caught fire down the stretch.
He started the final 11 games as a rookie, clearing this total nine times while averaging 7.7 boards per game.
TJD has gone under this mark in two of three games to start this season, but this teased-down line shouldn’t be too much to ask.
Picks made at 10:13 a.m. on 10/29/24.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.