Najee Harris and Malik Nabers are my picks to score on Monday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: The Pittsburgh Steelers host the New York Giants to wrap up Week 8. Harris has been getting a steady workload while Nabers is Daniel Jones’ clear-cut No. 1 target. Both have a solid chance of finding pay dirt as a result.
Check out my Giants vs. Steelers TD picks for Monday Night Football on Oct. 28.
Giants vs. Steelers TD picks
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Best Bet: Harris anytime TD (-112)
Harris has been Pittsburgh’s bell-cow back all season and things are starting to break his way.
The fourth-year RB leads the team with 131 touches (18.7 per game) and has found the end zone in back-to-back weeks. In those games, he toted the ball a combined 35 times for 208 yards (5.9 yards per carry).
Harris didn’t catch a pass in Week 7 for the first time in nine games, but I’ll chalk that up as coincidental with Russell Wilson making his first start.
Either way, he is far more likely to score as a runner than a receiver. All 10 of Harris’ touchdowns since last season came on the ground.
I’m also not worried about Jaylen Warren cutting into his opportunities. The second-string RB hasn’t looked great since returning from a knee injury in Week 6 and is averaging just 3.3 YPC on the season.
New York’s defence ranks 13th in points allowed but is 20th in EPA per play thanks to some timely red zone stops. But I say the G-Men regress tonight and Harris gets in.
Key stat: Harris has taken 82.1% of Pittsburgh’s red zone rushes, which is the fourth-highest mark of any RB in the NFL, per Fantasy Pros.
Quick picks
Nabers anytime TD (+150): Betting against Pittsburgh’s defence in any capacity is risky, but this price on Nabers is too good to pass up.
The rookie out of LSU leads the NFL in targets per game (12.0) and still has a 26.1% target share despite missing two games.
Nabers has scored three times in five starts and put up 75-plus receiving yards in three games, too. He’s already one of the league’s best and I’ll bank on him getting the ball the few times New York makes it into the red zone tonight.
Picks made at 12:24 p.m. ET 10/28/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.