I’m fading a prime MVP candidate tonight and am backing a couple of guards for my NBA prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Giannis Antetokounmpo can go off against anyone, but he seems least likely to do so against the defending champion Boston Celtics on the road. Later on, I like De’Aaron Fox to exploit a plus matchup and for Austin Reaves to stay heavily involved as a passer and scorer.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Oct. 28.
NBA prop bets
Go to full NBA betting markets
Best Bet: Fox over 23.5 points (+110)
Fox has been great against this number in recent seasons, and his matchup tonight is one I know he can exploit.
The eighth-year point guard has averaged 25.0 points per game since 2020-21, providing steady production that makes the Kings a fun team to watch.
Last year, Fox posted a career-high 26.6 PPG, which had a lot to do with his career-high 7.8 attempted threes per game. While upping his volume from deep, Fox also posted his best-ever 3PT% (36.9).
On Saturday, Fox had 28 points against the Los Angeles Lakers while shooting 3-for-10 from beyond the arc. Any time he’s in the vicinity of double-digit 3-point attempts, I’m going to feel great about his chances to clear this point total.
Let’s talk about tonight’s matchup, which comes against the Portland Trail Blazers.
Portland allowed the fourth-most PPG to opposing point guards last season (25.8), per Betting Pros. And Fox certainly had a hand in that.
On Boxing Day, he dropped 43 points in 38 minutes. Then in April, Fox scored 24 points in just 26 minutes of a blowout win.
In six matchups against the Blazers since 2022-23, Fox has cleared this total four times while averaging 28.2 PPG. This is a worthwhile spot to take on some plus-money action.
Key stat: Last year, Fox went over 23.5 points in 47 of 74 games (63.5%).
Quick picks
Giannis under 27.5 points (-122): A road date against the Celtics is about as tough of a matchup as Giannis could have.
Boston held power forwards to a league-low 19.8 PPG last year while also posting the best defensive rating in the Eastern Conference.
The Greek Freak has gone under 27.5 points against Boston in four consecutive matchups — including all three last season.
Also, Giannis has hit this under in both road matchups so far in 2024-25.
Reaves over 20.5 points/assists (-118): Shooting 0-for-5 from 3-point range on opening night caused Reaves to slip below this total, but he’s since cashed the bet in back-to-back games.
That includes a 26-point, eight-assist performance against the Suns on Friday. Reaves has now gone over 20.5 points/assists in five of his past eight matchups against Phoenix dating back to March 2023.
Reaves isn’t the primary facilitator for the Lakers, but he averaged 5.5 assists last year and is second on the team right now in potential assists per game (8.5), per NBA.com.
The fourth-year shooting guard should continue to see more opportunities as a scorer, too, and he’s shooting 55.3% from the floor so far.
Picks made at 10:50 a.m. on 10/28/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.