I’m backing three road teams on alt spreads in this week’s NFL parlay picks.
The pregame narrative: The Indianapolis Colts might have their best offensive player back on the field this week, which gives me hope that they can hang tough in an AFC South clash. Elsewhere, the Chicago Bears are starting to look really dangerous and the Kansas City Chiefs should roll in a divisional matchup.
Check out my NFL Week 8 parlay picks for Sunday’s action.
NFL Week 8 parlay picks
Go to full NFL Week 8 betting markets.
Parlay: Colts +8.5 + Bears +3.5 + Chiefs -6.5 (+230)
Colts +8.5 (-188): Jonathan Taylor unlocks a lot of things for the Colts, so his (potential) availability is crucial for my confidence in this play.
Head coach Shane Steichen said he’s “very optimistic” about Taylor returning to practice this week, so that will be a situation to monitor. Taylor, who’s averaging 5.6 yards per carry with seven TDs against the Texans since 2021, has missed the past three games with an ankle injury.
If Taylor plays, he’ll help a hot-and-cold Anthony Richardson lead a more balanced offence. If not, I still think the Colts can cover this inflated line based on how tough of an out they’ve been in this divisional matchup.
Over the past two seasons, the Colts are 1-3-1 against the Texans, but those three losses came by a combined seven points.
This year, Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS and 4-3 outright. All three of its losses have come by one score.
Houston, meanwhile, has only covered this number once in seven games.
Other parlay picks
Bears +3.5 (-223): This is supposed to be the Caleb Williams vs. Jayden Daniels show, but the latter rookie quarterback might be on the shelf.
Daniels is week-to-week with a rib injury that he sustained early in Week 7’s blowout win over the Panthers. Chicago is the moneyline favourite, which suggests that Daniels is trending toward not playing, but there’s a chance that that flips.
Either way, the Bears are playing respectable football right now, so I’ll buy in on this alt line.
Williams finally has the Chicago offence humming, as he’s guided the team to three wins and 95 points over the past three weeks. The Bears rank No. 2 in offensive EPA per play and No. 8 in defensive EPA per play in that span, according to RBSDM.com.
Unleashing the Bears’ No. 4 scoring defence on either Marcus Mariota or a banged-up Daniels sounds good to me.
Chiefs -6.5 (-200): Earlier this season, the Panthers won by 14 points in Las Vegas. So … yeah, I feel pretty good about KC winning by half of that margin.
The Chiefs are 5-1 ATS this year and have covered a -6.5 spread in four of those matchups. They inexplicably lost on Christmas Day against the Raiders last year, but before that, KC had won six in a row.
With Aidan O’Connell shifting to injured reserve, it’ll either be Gardner Minshew or Desmond Ridder under centre for Vegas.
Minshew has turned the ball over 10 times in just six games, while Ridder just signed off the scrap heap on Tuesday. Neither option should be able to stand up to KC’s No. 5 scoring defence.
NFL picks made at 12:05 p.m. on 10/23/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.