This week’s NFL upset picks feature two teams, the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints.
The pregame narrative: Dallas is spiralling but so are the San Francisco 49ers. Injuries to the latter’s offence have me backing the Cowboys as a road dog on Sunday Night Football.
Check out how these NFL Week 8 upset picks.
NFL Week 8 upset picks
Go to full NFL Week 8 betting markets.
Best bet: Cowboys moneyline (+180)
Brandon Aiyuk is out for the year, Deebo Samuel has pneumonia, George Kittle sprained his foot, and Christian McCaffrey … well, who knows what’s going on with the reigning Offensive Player of the Year.
To put things into perspective, San Francisco’s healthiest receiver is Ricky Pearsall, a rookie who was shot in the chest two months ago.
Dallas has a laundry list of injuries on its defence — headlined by Micah Parsons — but I can’t see the Niners putting up many points.
The Kansas City Chiefs just walked into Levi’s Stadium and embarrassed their Super Bowl dance partner from last season, 28-18, with Patrick Mahomes throwing for just 154 yards and no touchdowns (two INTs).
Brock Purdy couldn’t keep up with that, and I think Dak Prescott has a bounce-back game coming out of a bye week.
San Fran’s defence is good but far from great, ranking 16th in scoring, 14th in yardage, and 13th in EPA per play.
The Cowboys got clowned at home by the Detroit Lions the last time we saw them, but they’ve still won 12 games in each of the last three seasons under Mike McCarthy.
Key stat: McCarthy-led teams are 12-5 following the bye (3-1 with Dallas).
Week 8 upset predictions
Saints moneyline (+285): This pick is disgusting. There’s no other way to frame it. After starting 2-0, the Saints have lost five straight games and are averaging 17.2 PPG during the slump.
But I see an upset brewing at SoFi Stadium.
The Los Angeles Chargers want to win games ugly under John Harbaugh and sometimes that just doesn’t work. Take their most recent Monday Night Football loss to the Arizona Cardinals, for example.
L.A. has an elite defence but can’t get anything going on offence. The Bolts have the second-fewest red zone scoring attempts per game (2.2) and the third-worst red zone conversion rate (38.46%).
That means pretty much any team can hang around.
Derek Carr has done some throwing sessions this week and his return would be a boon for the Saints. If he can’t play, this would be a tough sell with Spencer Rattler under centre.
But the Saints are 7.5-point underdogs for a reason. I’ll plug my nose and take the plunge.
Picks made at 2:49 p.m. ET on 10/22/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.