A pair of marquee games ring in the new NBA season, and there’s plenty of prop betting potential in both matchups.
The pregame narrative: In the first matchup, I’m fading Mikal Bridges as he makes his New York Knicks debut against the Boston Celtics. Later on, I like both Julius Randle and LeBron James to start strong.
Check out these NBA prop bets for opening night on Oct. 22.
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Best Bet: Randle over 31.5 points/rebounds/assists (+102)
In a new season, and with a new team, there are some pretty significant unknowns for Randle tonight.
How will he fit with a ball-dominant guard like Anthony Edwards? What will his workload look like in his first meaningful action since January?
Let’s take these one at a time, starting with the question of playing alongside a ball-dominant guard like Edwards. The flashy point guard was fourth in the NBA in usage rate last year (31.4%).
But keep in mind that Randle was just on a team led by Jalen Brunson, who was sixth in usage rate a season ago (31.1%). And that worked out just fine.
In the two seasons that Randle and Brunson were teammates for the New York Knicks, Randle averaged 24.7 points, 9.7 rebounds and 4.4 assists (38.8 PRA).
Now for the question about Randle’s workload, which is a fair concern. The three-time all-star missed the latter half of the season and all of the postseason last year due to a shoulder injury.
He returned to action for one preseason game, finishing with 15 points, six rebounds and five assists in 26 minutes. That’s an encouraging start for a guy who hasn’t seen NBA competition in months.
Randle was second only to Edwards in minutes for that Oct. 16 game against the Bulls. I expect a standard workload for him tonight and a nice stat line to follow.
Key stat: Randle averaged 38.2 PRA over the past four seasons, with an average of at least 35.1 PRA in each individual season.
Quick picks
LeBron over 1.5 threes (-130): Minnesota was among the best teams at defending the 3-point game last year, which helps explain why this line sits where it is. But the over is still very attainable for the King.
LeBron is coming off the best 3-point shooting season of his 21-year career. He shot 41.0% from deep last year and notched his sixth consecutive campaign averaging at least 2.0 threes made per game.
In the regular season and playoffs, LeBron cashed this bet in 49 of 76 games (64.5%), including one of two against the Timberwolves.
Bridges under 13.5 points (-108): Spend enough time on NBA Twitter, and you’ll see all sorts of strange narratives.
But there’s one I’m buying into right now, which is that Bridges’ shot does not look right.
Bridges made three of four shots in the video above, but obviously those were uncontested in an empty gym. During the preseason, he was 2-of-19 from beyond the arc and averaged just 10.8 PPG in four matchups.
I don’t want to put too much stock in preseason action, of course, but this is a new-looking shot for a guy on a new team. He’s coming in cold, and giving me little confidence that things will be different tonight.
Also, Bridges went under 13.5 points in both road matchups against the Celtics last year (as a member of the Nets), shooting 34.8% from the floor.
Picks made at 9:15 a.m. on 10/22/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.