We have a series thanks to some late-inning dramatics last night by the Cleveland Guardians. But it’s the New York Yankees who I’m betting on in Game 4.
The pregame narrative: As part of a four-leg SGP, I’m picking the Yankees to win, taking the over on the game total and fading their starting pitcher Luis Gil.
Check out my Yankees vs. Guardians +525 same-game parlay predictions for Game 4 of the ALCS on October 18.
Yankees vs. Guardians SGP predictions
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Parlay: Gil under 5.5 Ks + Yanks ML + over 7.5 runs + Judge over 1.5 total bases (+525)
Gil under 5.5 Ks (-375): This is the only alternative line I’m taking and the one I feel safest about.
Under 4.5 strikeouts is a single play for me but I’m recommending 5.5 to limit some risk in what is already a riskier bet with four legs.
The righty is making his first postseason appearance. He hasn’t pitched since Sept. 28, meaning we’re surely looking at a shorter outing for the erratic 26-year-old.
Gil’s time off and walk issues have me confident he won’t get to six Ks against a Guardians team that’s hard to strike out.
Cleveland’s strikeout rate has slightly increased in October but it’s still below the league-average rate from the regular season. During the regular season, the Guardians were the fifth-most difficult team to retire on strikes.
Gil punched out batters at a strong clip but fellow strikeout artists Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt both failed to record even five strikeouts versus the Guardians in their starts this series.
SGP legs
Yankees ML (-124): While I don’t trust Gil, I also don’t trust Guardians starter Gavin Williams.
The two have similarities as well. Williams hasn’t pitched since Sept. 22 and, like Gil, can miss bats but struggles with control.
That should be a problem against the Yankees, who have the highest walk rate in the postseason and are striking out at the second-lowest rate.
This game will come down to the bullpens for me and I have much more confidence in the Yankees’ lineup to deliver.
While Emmanuel Clase giving up back-to-back homers likely doesn’t happen again, I wouldn’t bank on the Guardians getting multiple, late game-changing homers either.
New York has been the better team all year, including this series, and could very well be up 3-0.
Over 7.5 runs (-114): I won’t spend much time here. I think at least one of the starters contributes a good chunk toward this number.
Gil had a 4.47 ERA (5.58 FIP) over his final nine starts while Williams allowed three-plus runs in half his outings.
Both teams will likely be asking a lot from their relievers. For the Guardians, that’s going to mean containing the AL’s best offence (117 wRC+) for more than half the game.
Game 1 landed on seven runs and the last two cleared this.
Judge over 1.5 total bases (+110): This is the only plus-money play and brings this SGP from +295 to +525.
During the regular season, Judge topped this line at the third-highest rate in MLB (according to Team Rankings).
Despite his well-publicized struggles, he has topped it in three of seven postseason games and homered in back-to-back contests.
An SGP is never close to a full unit play for me, so I’m happy to assume some added risk with the most dangerous hitter in this series to drive up the price.
Picks made at 1:44 p.m. on 10/18/24.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.