It’s a doubleheader of MLB postseason action on Thursday.
The pregame narrative: Today’s top prop picks feature Gleyber Torres in the first game, and Teoscar Hernandez and Mark Vientos in the nightcap.
Check out how I’m backing them in the best MLB playoff prop bets for October 17.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Torres over 0.5 runs (+117)
Torres ended his season with a strong September and has carried that into October.
The New York Yankees second baseman has set the tone at the top of the lineup, getting on base at a .433 clip this postseason.
He’s working his way on via both walks (20% BB rate) and hits (.292 average) ahead of the dangerous No. 2-3 duo of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge.
It’s led to seven runs in six games for the leadoff man. He’s scored in all but one postseason contest and reached base safely in all of them.
Torres, who posted an .811 OPS versus left-handers this season (.674 against righties), will see Cleveland Guardians southpaw Matthew Boyd to start today’s game.
Boyd is unlikely to last long based on the way Cleveland deploys its bullpen. But Torres’ lack of swing and miss in the postseason is encouraging ahead of any pitching matchup.
Torres has four Ks in 30 plate appearances, meaning 86% of his trips to the dish have ended in either a walk or a ball put in play. That’s a great recipe for success.
Key stat: Torres trails only Francisco Lindor and Fernando Tatis Jr. in runs scored this October.
Quick picks
Vientos over 1.5 total bases (+155): I’m going back to this for the second straight day.
Vientos had one hit and a loud out in last night’s loss. The out was a ball struck 390 feet with an exit velocity of 103 mph. It had an expected batting average of .760 and would have left the yard in multiple parks, according to Baseball Savant.
That doesn’t help us cash anything. But it’s the context I want coming out of his 1-for-4, two-strikeout effort in Game 3.
The third baseman is 6-4 against this line in the playoffs and enters Game 4 slugging .634.
He raked at home this season, slugging 100-plus points higher than his mark on the road and clubbing 17 of his 27 homers. Vientos had a .912 OPS at Citi Field (.765 outside of New York).
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, tonight’s Los Angeles Dodgers starter, had reverse splits in his first MLB season and has not been missing bats as he builds back up from injury.
Yamamoto held lefties to a .193 average and .526 OPS in the regular season, while righties hit .263 with a .744 OPS. He has three strikeouts over two postseason starts and only seven whiffs.
Hernandez over 0.5 RBI (+170): Hernandez will either hit cleanup or No. 5 tonight. Either way, that puts him behind Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman.
That was the setup during the regular season when you couldn’t get Hernandez anywhere near this price. He should see lefty Jose Quintana multiple times. If he doesn’t, it’s likely because the Dodgers feasted early.
Hernandez does his best work against southpaws. His career splits largely resemble the results he produced this season:
| Stat | Vs. LHPs | Vs. RHPs |
| Average | .290 | .265 |
| SLG% | .574 | .475 |
| OPS | .931 | .808 |
The power-hitting outfielder has seven RBI in eight playoff games after driving in 99 during the regular season, trailing only Ohtani for the team lead.
Picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET on 10/17/2024.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.