We’re back to a 15-game slate this week with only two teams on bye.
The loaded schedule features two Monday Night Football contests and a rematch of last season’s Super Bowl between the Kansas Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers. Kansas City hasn’t lost a game since Week 16 last year.
Check out our NFL Week 7 ATS picks for predictions on every game.
NFL Week 7 ATS picks
NorthStar Bets’ Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin, Spencer Closs and Chris Toman offer up their NFL Week 7 ATS picks for all 15 games.
NFL odds as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 17, 2024.
Click odds from any game to add selections to your betslip.
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Thursday Night Football pick
Broncos vs. Saints (Thursday, Oct. 17: 8:15 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Denver -2.5
Perri says: This game is going to be ugly. A pair of 24-year-old rookies start with Spencer Rattler going up against Bo Nix. Denver has at least looked competent with Nix under centre lately while New Orleans has been in a freefall since starting 2-0 (and most of that was with Derek Carr at QB). In a defensive battle, I’ll take the team with the fourth-best scoring and total defence.
Pick: Broncos -2.5
NFL Week 7 ATS picks: The early Sunday slate
Patriots vs. Jaguars (Sunday, Oct. 20: 9:30 a.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Jaguars -5.5
Perri says: The Jaguars have only won two of their last 12 games and I’m supposed to believe they’re 5.5 points better than the Patriots? Trevor Lawrence looks lost and Doug Pederson is operating on borrowed time. Drake Maye might be a rookie but I can’t put any faith in Jacksonville right now.
Pick: Patriots +5.5
Bengals vs. Browns (Sunday, Oct. 20: 1 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Bengals -5.5
Perri says: Cincinnati eked out a win against an awful Giants team to improve to 2-4 and now has a divisional “test” in the Browns. Spoiler alert: Neither team is good. I’ll bank points with the home side and hope Nick Chubb can rumble against a defence that has allowed the seventh-most points per game and ranks 30th in defensive EPA per rush.
Pick: Browns +5.5
Lions vs. Vikings (Sunday, Oct. 20: 1 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Vikings -1.5
Horrobin says: The Vikings are unbeaten, they’re at home and they’re coming off a bye. But the Lions have found their footing — scoring 40-plus points in consecutive games — and I’d rather back an elite team with points than a surprise upstart. Detroit is 10-2 ATS on the road since last season and has covered in its past seven matchups against Minnesota.
Pick: Lions +1.5
Texans vs. Packers (Sunday, Oct. 20: 1 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Green Bay -3
Horrobin says: C.J. Stroud’s passer rating outdoors (87.6) is notably worse than it is overall (100.2), and I think the Lambeau Field crowd will be fired up after last week’s stellar performance from the home side. Green Bay is 7-4 ATS at home since last season and has covered this number in all four of its wins.
Pick: Packers -3
Dolphins vs. Colts (Sunday, Oct. 20: 1 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Indianapolis -3
Closs says: Miami has scored 25 total points in three games since Tua Tagovailoa’s injury and I don’t see a bye week helping the quarterback struggles. The Colts are 3-1 in their last four and have scored 20 or more points in each of those games. Even with the potential return of Anthony Richardson, I don’t see the Dolphins being able to keep up.
Pick: Colts -3
Eagles vs. Giants (Sunday, Oct. 20: 1 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Philadelphia -3.5
Closs says: Malik Nabers’ availability is important. The rookie receiver is back practicing this week but still has hurdles to climb to play on Sunday. That said, I have no faith in the Eagles either way. All three of their wins have come by five points or fewer and they failed to cover this spread in two away games.
Pick: Giants +3.5
Seahawks vs. Falcons (Sunday, Oct. 20: 1 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Atlanta -3
Toman says: These teams are going in opposite directions. The Seahawks have dropped three in a row while Atlanta is riding a three-game winning streak. Seattle has stumbled after a soft schedule to start the year and its defence has gotten torn up. The Falcons’ offence is clicking behind Kirk Cousins and I like them to at least push this (win by a field goal) in a shootout.
Pick: Falcons -3
Titans vs. Bills (Sunday, Oct. 20: 1 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Buffalo -9.5
Toman says: Tennessee’s offence inspires little confidence but the team has covered this spread in four of five games. Buffalo, on the other hand, is 0-3 against this number since demolishing Jacksonville in Week 3. That said, the Bills return home — where they’re undefeated — after a difficult three-week road trip and I expect Buffalo to win this one comfortably.
Pick: Bills -9.5
NFL 4 p.m. slate
Panthers vs. Commanders (Sunday, Oct. 20: 4:05 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Washington -8.5
Closs says: The Panthers’ defence is atrocious. It allows the sixth-most yards (384.7) and the most points per game (33.8). Rookie QB Jayden Daniels should feast once again for the Commanders. The second overall pick ranks fourth in the NFL in quarterback rating (107.1) and has led his offence to the second-most points per game (29.7).
Pick: Commanders -8.5
Raiders vs. Rams (Sunday, Oct. 20: 4:05 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Los Angeles -6.5
Perri says: The Raiders have lost three of four since upsetting the Ravens and Davante Adams is now a Jet. That’s not great. But I can see Las Vegas putting together a respectable effort against the Rams. L.A. is 1-4 and hasn’t covered this spread in eight straight dating back to last season. Cooper Kupp might return but there is still an Aaron Donald-sized hole on the defence.
Pick: Raiders +6.5
Make your NFL Week 7 predictions
Chiefs vs. 49ers (Sunday, Oct. 20: 4:25 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: San Francisco -1.5
Perri says: Patrick Mahomes is 11-1-1 ATS as an underdog. But San Francisco is no pushover and Kansas City will be missing a handful of weapons. The Niners came short of winning the Super Bowl last year and will want revenge. Even without Christian McCaffrey, I think they can outpace this injured Chiefs offence.
Pick: 49ers -1.5
Sunday and Monday night ATS picks
Jets vs. Steelers (Sunday, Oct. 20: 8:20 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: New York -2.5
Toman says: I’m not flocking to the Jets after the much-needed Adams trade. The bottom line is this unimpressive team shouldn’t be favoured on the road against one of the NFL’s top defences. Pittsburgh is 4-2, losing each game by a field goal. A QB change from Justin Fields to Russell Wilson leads to some uncertainty, but it should have no impact on the defence, which has been winning this team games.
Pick: Steelers +2.5
Ravens vs. Buccaneers (Monday, Oct. 21: 8:15 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Baltimore -3.5
Closs says: Since starting 0-2, the Ravens have won four straight. The offence looks electric, tallying the most yards per game (460.3) which feels like trouble for the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is allowing the fourth-most yards per game and is coming off a week where the defence allowed 27 first-half points to Spencer Rattler and the Saints. I fully expect Lamar Jackson to have an MVP-like performance on Monday.
Pick: Ravens -3.5
Chargers vs. Cardinals (Monday, Oct. 21: 9 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Los Angeles -2.5
Toman says: The Chargers haven’t scored or beaten any good teams, but the Cardinals don’t fit that bill. Arizona is a mess defensively and its offence will be tasked with going up against a Chargers team allowing an NFL-low 13.2 points per game. J.K. Dobbins is coming off a monster 25-carry effort and should shred one of the worst run defences in the NFL.
Pick: Chargers -2.5
Staff Week 6 + season-long records: Toman: 8-6 (46-41-5) | Closs: 8-6 (44-43-5) | Psihogios: 8-6 (39-48-5) | Horrobin: 7-7 (38-49-5) | Perri: 6-8 (36-51-5)
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