Three NHL games start at 1:00 p.m. ET on this holiday Monday, but I’m looking toward the late slate for today’s prop bets.
The pregame narrative: The Colorado Avalanche host the New York Islanders with each team searching for its first win. I’m fading Matthew Barzal and am backing Nathan MacKinnon. Elsewhere, bet on Cole Caufield against the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Find these NHL prop picks for Oct. 14 below.
NHL prop picks
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Best Bet: Barzal under 2.5 shots (-114)
On a surface level, fading a player going up against the Avalanche might seem silly.
Colorado has given up 14 goals across its first two games, losing 8-4 and 6-4 to the Vegas Golden Knights and Columbus Blue Jackets, respectively.
But you can pin that almost entirely on poor goaltending.
Vegas had just 21 shots in the season opener and Columbus had 23 shots three nights later. Needless to say, the Avs rank dead last in team save percentage (.714%).
This isn’t a play against Barzal scoring a point. It’s a play against his ability to put pucks on the net.
Colorado has given up the second-fewest chances per 60 (44.95) and the fifth-fewest shots per 60 (23.1) at 5v5, per Natural Stat Trick.
The New York Islanders are also winless and Barzal has logged just two shots across as many games. He averaged exactly 3.0 shots per game last season but I’ll still fade him in this spot.
Key stat: Barzal has gone under this mark in 16 of his last 25 regular season games.
Quick picks
MacKinnon to score (-122): MacKinnon had a point in 39 of 41 home games last year, logging 34 goals and 55 assists in those contests.
He’s started hot again, racking up two assists in Colorado’s opener and a goal and an assist the game after that.
I was tempted to back MacKinnon to log multiple points at -157. But I can’t get down with that price tag, even with how efficient he’s been at altitude.
Taking him to score seems like the better play. The Islanders have allowed eight goals in two games, which isn’t a good sign considering how bad their defence was last season. New York gave up the fourth-most even-strength chances per 60 in 2023-24.
Caufield over 3.5 shots (-118): Could this be Caufield’s breakout year? Through three games it certainly looks like it.
The Montreal Canadiens winger has scored in every game with four total goals. He’s only cleared this line once but has had at least three shots in each contest.
Tonight, he goes up against a Penguins team that has given up 13 goals in three games. Pittsburgh is allowing an average of 35 shots per 60 minutes, the second-most in the NHL.
Picks made at 9:07 a.m. ET on 10/14/2024.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.