The battle for the AL pennant begins on Monday night as the New York Yankees host the Cleveland Guardians.
The pregame narrative: In the regular season, the Yankees and Guardians combined for some decent offensive performances. That’s part of the reason I like the over in Game 1. I’m also siding with the Yankees to lead at the first-five-inning mark.
Check out my Guardians vs. Yankees best bets for Game 1 of their ALCS matchup on Oct. 14.
Guardians vs. Yankees best bets
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Best Bet: Over 7.5 runs (-106)
Carlos Rodon was all smiles when he struck out the side to begin his lone ALDS start against the Royals. But he didn’t have a lot to smile about after that.
The left-hander wound up allowing four runs on seven hits over just 3.2 innings.
Rodon had a solid regular season, posting a 3.96 ERA over 32 outings. But due to some wobbly outings — and more often, some great performances by the New York offence — this over cashed in 22 of his starts (68.8%).
Cleveland hasn’t faced Rodon this year, but the Guardians fared well against lefties as a whole.
Against all LHPs this season, the Guardians ranked seventh in SLG (.427) and eighth in wRC+ (114).
The Guardians also found something on offence over the final two ALDS games, scoring 12 total runs in a pair of matchups that went over the 7.5-run total.
Four of six head-to-head matchups between Cleveland and New York exceeded this number. The average total in those games was 9.8 runs.
Key stat: The over is 46-35-2 (56.8%) in Yankees home games this season, per Team Rankings.
Quick pick
Yankees to lead after five innings (-125): Even though Rodon struggled in his most recent start, I still think he gives the Yankees an edge over whomever the Guardians roll with.
Cleveland hasn’t announced its Game 1 starter as of this writing, but it’ll likely be Alex Cobb or Gavin Williams. New York has seen more of Cobb but has decent numbers against both
The Yankees are 25-for-89 (.281) with 11 extra-base hits cumulatively against Cobb and Williams, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them deal early damage against either pitcher.
New York’s offence also tends to start strong, averaging 2.79 runs per game in the first five innings (fifth in MLB). Cleveland’s F5 scoring average is 2.57 runs (11th).
Picks made at 4:35 p.m. ET 10/13/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.