The Los Angeles Dodgers, who are back in the NLCS for the seventh time since 2013, host Game 1 tonight against the New York Mets.
The pregame narrative: Jack Flaherty gets the ball on Sunday, just as he did in the NLDS opener. I like Flaherty to clear a modest strikeout total, and I’m backing both Shohei Ohtani and Francisco Lindor to chip in on offence.
Check out my Mets vs. Dodgers predictions for Game 1 of the NLCS on Oct. 13.
Mets vs. Dodgers SGP predictions
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Parlay: Flaherty over 4.5 strikeouts + Ohtani over 0.5 runs + Lindor over 0.5 hits (+265)
Flaherty over 4.5 Ks (-245): Flaherty on extra rest is a guy worth putting your trust in.
During the regular season, when pitching on six-plus days of rest, Flaherty went 5-1 with a 2.45 ERA and a 10.2 K/9. He collected five-plus Ks in seven of those eight starts.
Flaherty was an option to go for the Dodgers in Game 5 of the NLDS but was passed over for Yoshinobu Yamamoto. And now, pitching for the first time since Oct. 6, he should be in a comfortable spot to thrive.
The Mets had the 10th-highest K rate in the second half (24.2%), and Flaherty has a 28.6% K rate against them in 70 at-bats.
SGP legs
Ohtani over 0.5 runs (-148): Ohtani is an MVP-in-waiting who leads off for arguably the best offence in the majors. I’m not going to let a so-so performance in the NLDS cloud my view of him.
L.A.’s designated hitter reached base in just six of 22 plate appearances (.273 OBP) with 10 strikeouts against the Padres, scoring in two of five games.
So what? He had a .390 OBP during the regular season and scored in 93 of 159 games (58.5%).
So far, Ohtani has reached base in all three plate appearances against Mets starter Kodai Senga (a double and two walks). And as a lefty hitter, Ohtani has the platoon advantage against the right-handed Senga.
Ohtani had a 1.128 OPS against righties this season.
Lindor over 0.5 hits (-215): Coming off a series-clinching grand slam in the NLDS, Lindor should be reliable to notch a hit in tonight’s opener.
The shortstop is 7-for-21 (.333) over his past five games, stringing together quality at-bats from atop the Mets’ lineup.
Flaherty has a 5.9% walk rate, which ranks in the 83rd percentile in the majors. That means Lindor will likely need to get the bat off his shoulder to get on base.
Including the regular season and playoffs, Lindor has recorded a hit in 110 of 159 games (69.2%).
Picks made at 9:50 a.m. on 10/13/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.