This week’s NFL TD picks target Lamar Jackson, Dontayvion Wicks and Drake London.
The pregame narrative: Jackson co-headlines a matchup with Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner Jayden Daniels, and I expect him to torch the Washington Commanders’ defence. Elsewhere, Wicks and London take on two of the worst secondaries in football.
Check out the best NFL Week 6 TD picks for the upcoming games.
NFL Week 6 TD picks
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Best bet: Jackson anytime TD (-121)
Jackson is set up to be the star in this battle of the DMV.
The reigning MVP is off to an even better start than last year, throwing for 1,209 yards and nine touchdowns while adding 363 yards and two scores on the ground.
How? Well, the addition of Derrick Henry to Baltimore’s backfield can’t be overstated.
Lamar could always make defences look silly but now he has a battering ram next to him. That makes the Ravens’ run-pass option (RPO) game even deadlier — especially in the red zone.
Washington is coming off consecutive games of holding its opponent to 14 or fewer points, but it still ranks 27th in defensive EPA per play, according to RBSDM.com.
Dan Quinn’s rush defence is well below average and now he has to scheme up a way to stop a Ravens team that is averaging the second-most points per game. I don’t like his chances.
Key stat: Jackson’s five rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line are the third-most among all NFL quarterbacks.
Quick picks
Wicks anytime TD (+150): Backing Wicks to score might seem like a tough sell.
The second-year receiver has caught just 10 of his 29 targets. That 34.5% catch rate ranks dead last among players with at least 25 targets, according to Forbes’ Rob Reischel.
But Wicks has still found the end zone three times and has played in over 75.0% of snaps in consecutive games. Luke Musgrave is an IR candidate, Tucker Kraft is dealing with a groin injury, and Christian Watson is doing a whole lot of nothing.
Wicks should get plenty of looks on Sunday when the Green Bay Packers host the Arizona Cardinals.
Arizona has allowed the sixth-most points per game and ranks 27th in defensive EPA per dropback. This is just a matter of capitalizing on opportunities.
London anytime TD (+175): It took a minute but the Atlanta Falcons’ offence is rolling.
The Dirty Birds have put up a combined 62 points and 865 yards over their last two games with London being the focal point.
The third-year receiver is coming off a game where he caught 12 passes for 154 yards and a score. He’s now found the end zone in three of his last four games and leads all receivers in red zone receptions with six.
Atlanta takes on a Carolina Panthers defence that ranks last in scoring (33.0 points allowed/game) and 30th in defensive EPA per dropback.
Picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET on 10/11/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.