I’m backing three players from Friday’s four-game slate for these NHL prop picks.
The pregame narrative: Tomas Hertl embarks on his first full season with the Vegas Golden Knights and is a nice pick to record a point tonight. Elsewhere, fade Jake Guentzel and Taylor Hall against good defensive teams.
Find these NHL prop picks for Oct. 11 below.
NHL prop picks
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Best Bet: Hertl to record a point (-125)
Hertl’s 2023-24 season was seemingly going to be a wash until Vegas traded for the San Jose Shark at the deadline and activated him from LTIR right before the playoffs.
The centre was largely ineffective in the postseason (one point in seven games) but did register a point in four of his six regular season games with the Golden Knights.
Now that he’s had a full offseason, I expect Hertl to return to elite form.
In his last five full seasons with San Jose he registered 280 points in 336 games (0.83/game). This year, he slots in as Vegas’ second-line centre and starts on the team’s first power-play unit.
Hertl recorded an assist in Vegas’ 8-4 blowout of the Colorado Avalanche on Wednesday.
The Golden Knights welcome the St. Louis Blues to town, who are playing their third game in four nights and are on a back-to-back, wrapping up a season-opening West Coast road trip.
Key stat: Hertl had a point in 28 of 54 games last year (51.8%).
Quick picks
Hall to not record a point (-122): Long gone are the days of Hall being an elite player.
The 2018 Hart Trophy winner played just 10 games for the Chicago Blackhawks last season and logged four points. He’s on the wrong side of 30 and isn’t playing with Connor Bedard or on the first power-play unit.
The Blackhawks had one of the worst offences in the NHL last year and are going up against Connor Hellebuyck and the Jets in Winnipeg tonight.
Hellebuyck, fresh off a Vezina award, shut out the Edmonton Oilers in his first start of the season.
Guentzel to not record a point (+185): Guentzel has big shoes to fill with Steven Stamkos out the door.
The former Pittsburgh Penguin went pointless in the preseason and has been dealing with an injury that kept him out of practices earlier this week. He’s labelled as day-to-day but was practicing with the Tampa Bay Lightning yesterday.
Assuming he plays, I believe this is a good spot to fade him at plus money.
The Bolts open their season against the Carolina Hurricanes in Raleigh and that’s not a cupcake opponent. Carolina was tied for the fewest goals allowed per game at home last season (2.41), per StatMuse.
Picks made at 9:52 a.m. ET on 10/11/2024.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.