I’m taking the over on yardage props for one quarterback, one receiver and one running back in Week 6.
The pregame narrative: Jayden Daniels has a very attainable passing yards line against the Baltimore Ravens, who’ve struggled to contain opposing offences through the air. I’m also looking for A.J. Brown to shine in his return from injury and for Jahmyr Gibbs to feast in a plus matchup.
Check out the best NFL Week 6 prop bets for the upcoming games.
NFL Week 6 prop bets
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Best bet: Daniels over 225.5 passing yards (-113)
For my money, Commanders vs. Ravens is the game of the week this Sunday. And it’s a great opportunity for Daniels to make his mark with reigning MVP Lamar Jackson standing on the other sideline.
Daniels has cashed this bet in four consecutive games and is throwing for 227.0 pass yards per game.
The Ravens have established a reputation as a tough defence, but that hasn’t held up on the passing side so far. Baltimore has allowed the second-most passing yards per game (280.2).
A big chunk of that came from Joe Burrow and the Bengals last week, as Burrow torched his division rival for 392 yards and five scores. I’m not saying that Daniels has that in his bag, but he doesn’t need to be anywhere near 300 yards to clear this total with ease.
Daniels has the highest completion rate in the NFL (77.1%), which is certainly an encouraging stat for this pick.
And although he’s not airing it out constantly, Daniels’ exceptional efficiency has led to 7.5 net yards per attempt (the NFL average is 6.1).
Baltimore might not feel like a plus matchup for opposing offences. But for opposing quarterbacks, it is.
Key stat: The Ravens have allowed four of five opposing QBs to finish with 275-plus passing yards.
Quick picks
Gibbs over 58.5 rushing yards (-114): Gibbs is in a timeshare with David Montgomery in the Lions’ backfield, but this is a timeshare-sized line. And it comes in an exceptional matchup.
The Cowboys’ rush defence ranks dead last in EPA per play while allowing the fourth-highest success rate, per RBSDM.com. Other run-happy teams like the Ravens and Saints have already steamrolled Dallas, combining for 464 yards on the ground.
Gibbs has averaged 13.5 carries per week, never going below 11 or above 16. So his ceiling as a volume runner might not be sky-high, but the floor is in a good spot.
Entering Sunday, Gibbs has rushed for 75-plus yards in three consecutive games.
Brown over 69.5 receiving yards (-113): This might be the lowest yardage line Brown sees the rest of the season, and I’m eager to jump on it.
Brown was a full participant in practice Wednesday, which is a great sign for his prospects of playing this week. He hasn’t been on the field since Week 1, when he racked up 119 yards on five catches against Jaire Alexander and the Packers.
Since joining the Eagles in 2022, Brown has done nothing but produce. He’s averaging 87.7 receiving yards per game with Philly, hitting the over on this line in 21 of 35 regular season games.
Cleveland has a reputable pass defence, but at this number, I’d still bet on AJB to make a triumphant return.
Picks made at 2:15 p.m. ET on 10/10/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.