We’re serving up four prop picks for today’s loaded four-game MLB playoff slate.
The pregame narrative: I’m fading one starting pitcher, backing another, and have additional recommendations on stars Trea Turner and Fernando Tatis Jr.
Check out the best MLB playoff prop bets for Oct. 9.
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Best bet: Quintana under 15.5 outs (-150)
The New York Mets got seven sensational innings out of left-hander Sean Manaea last night but I’m not expecting fellow southpaw Jose Quintana to duplicate his performance.
Having Quintana come back out for the sixth inning to face some potent bats for likely the third time feels like a risk the Mets won’t take with an NLCS berth on the line.
The Philadelphia Phillies’ backs are against the wall but let’s not forget what this team possesses: a top-three offence — by wRC+ — versus lefties, that ranked second in batting average and seventh in ISO.
Philadelphia averaged the fourth-most runs per game in the regular season and was seventh in homers.
The Phillies have struggled to generate offence in both of their losses but these three NLDS games aren’t enough for me to overlook their body of work this season.
Quintana has been dynamite, clearing this line in four of his final six regular-season starts (including against the Phillies), while putting up a 0.74 ERA. He then twirled six scoreless innings in the wild-card series.
In his other 25 starts, he went under this number 12 times. One of those was against the Phillies and he recorded 16 outs the other time he faced them.
Quintana is not a big swing-and-miss arm and has an above-average walk rate. I’m not crazy about this matchup for him and certainly don’t like his chances of going deep.
Key stat: Excluding openers, starting pitchers are 13-23 versus this line in the postseason.
Quick picks
Turner over 0.5 runs (+108): I like Turner’s chances of getting on base today, especially against Quintana.
Turner has seen him a solid amount and while he hasn’t punished him, he’s put the ball in play (only three Ks in 24 career plate appearances). His .385 OBP was the second-best mark of his career.
From there, it’s up to the big Phillie mashers to bring him home, which they did frequently throughout the year.
Turner scored 88 runs in just 121 games. He crossed the plate in 54% of his starts, good for the seventh-highest rate in MLB.
Clarke Schmidt over 3.5 Ks (-143): The Kansas City Royals were the third-hardest team in MLB to retire on strikes.
New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole only managed four against them in Game 1, though Carlos Rodon punched out seven in a short Game 2 outing.
Both of those guys are known as big strikeout arms, but did you know Schmidt had the same K rate as Rodon and topped Cole this season?
Schmidt’s K rate spiked 5% in his second full season as a starter. He had excellent whiff rates on three of his four pitches, ranking in the 74th percentile in K%, per Baseball Savant.
The righty topped this line in 17 of his 18 starts.
Tatis over 1.5 total bases (-117): It’s a bullpen game for the Los Angeles Dodgers as they face elimination.
Knowing the opener would be nice but it doesn’t really matter, either.
Here’s why: Tatis is hitting .556/.636/1.333 in the postseason. His OPS is just shy of 2.000 and he hasn’t struck out once.
Tatis is the hottest hitter on the planet, going deep four times in five games and recording six extra-base hits. He has cleared 1.5 total bases in every playoff game.
I would take him at this number against any Dodgers pitcher.
Picks made at 11:45 a.m. ET on 10/09/2024.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.