The San Diego Padres can punch their ticket to the NLCS tonight.
The pregame narrative: Dylan Cease gets the ball on short rest for San Diego while the Los Angeles Dodgers have a bullpen game. That sounds like a recipe for scoring. I’m taking the over on an alternate total alongside Shohei Ohtani’s bases prop to build a +320 same-game parlay.
Check out my Dodgers vs. Padres predictions for Game 4 of their NLDS matchup on Oct. 9.
Dodgers vs. Padres SGP predictions
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Parlay: Over 6.5 runs + Ohtani over 1.5 bases + Cease over 3.5 strikeouts (+320)
Over 6.5 runs (-240): Every game of this series has cruised past a 6.5-run total.
Last night, both offences erupted for five runs before the fourth inning began and I’m calling for more fireworks tonight.
When Cease took the mound in Game 1 he had an early 3-0 lead but squandered it after giving up a three-run moonshot to Ohtani. San Diego re-took a 5-3 lead before Cease gave that away, too.
The righty has had a solid season for the Padres (3.47 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) but the Dodgers have consistently hit him hard. In 112 at-bats, Los Angeles is batting .278 with a .480 slugging percentage.
I won’t go as far as taking Dodgers moneyline, though, considering how hot San Diego’s bats have been.
The Padres have the second-best batting average (.267) and fourth-best wRC+ (117) since the all-star break. It’s unclear who Los Angeles will start as an opener, but I don’t think it matters.
SGP legs
Ohtani over 1.5 bases (+115): Ohtani went nuclear to close out the regular season and was 2-for-5 with a home run in his postseason debut.
He’s gone cold the last two games (1-for-8, one single) but I won’t let that stop me from backing a generational hitter at plus money.
The NL-MVP-in-waiting hit .310 this year with 54 home runs. Let’s circle back on how he closed the season, shall we? Check out this 10 games stretch:
- 27-for-43 (.628 batting average)
- 15 runs scored
- 12 extra-base hits
- 20 RBI
- Over 1.5 bases in eight of 10 games
Ohtani is 5-for-17 against Cease with three bombs and a double. This is a good spot for him to get back on track.
Cease over 3.5 strikeouts (-265): I haven’t spoken highly of Cease in this article but he’s still a solid arm with elite swing-and-miss stuff.
He finished fifth in total strikeouts and was tied for third in strikeout rate (29.4 K%), per Baseball Savant.
Cease may have gotten rocked in Game 1 but he still cleared this line with five strikeouts in 3.1 IP. That’s because it’s essentially his floor.
He’s recorded four-plus strikeouts in all but one of his 33 starts this season. And in that game, he had two in 1.0 IP before it was rained out.
There’s no such thing as a sure thing in sports betting but I feel very confident about this leg.
Picks made at 12:50 p.m. on 10/08/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.