The New York Yankees visit the Kansas City Royals with the series lead on the line.
The pregame narrative: With Seth Lugo starting, I like the Royals to win at home. I’m also backing the over on an alternate total and the over on a modified Lugo strikeouts prop as part of a same-game parlay for Game 3 of the ALDS.
Check out my Yankees vs. Royals predictions for Game 3 of their ALDS matchup on Oct. 9.
Yankees vs. Royals SGP predictions
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Parlay: Royals moneyline + Under 8.5 runs + Lugo over 3.5 strikeouts (+310)
Royals moneyline (-103): I believe Lugo provides a pitching advantage for Kansas City.
In my MLB best bets for today, I also have Royals moneyline and it’s mostly to do with Lugo’s past success against the Yankees.
New York’s offence has 25 hits in 112 at-bats against Lugo (.223 batting average). He also proved he can get big outs in the playoffs already. He pitched 4.1 innings in a start vs. the Baltimore Orioles in the wild-card series and gave up just one run.
The righty found himself in some tough spots but was able to work through it and limit a very dangerous Orioles offence.
On the other hand, Clarke Schmidt hasn’t been good against the Royals. Kansas City’s current lineup is 21-for-58 off the Yankees’ pitcher (.362 BA).
SGP legs
Under 8.5 runs (-136): Although Schmidt has allowed the Royals to batter him in the past, I can’t ignore his improvements this season.
In 16 starts, he had a 2.85 ERA. He spent the middle portion of the campaign on the injured list and wasn’t as strong when returning in September but still gave up three or fewer runs in four of five starts.
As it has become known, I am confident in Lugo having a good night but don’t be surprised if both teams struggle to find offence early.
Lugo over 3.5 strikeouts (-200): Since I’m basically all in on the Royals starter today, I might as well take the over on this modest strikeout total.
Lugo has cleared this Ks prop in nine of his last 11 starts including six strikeouts against the Orioles in his one playoff start.
The Yankees also have a 30.0% career K rate against Lugo. For context, the Colorado Rockies led the majors with a 26.9% K rate.
Picks made at 9:55 a.m. on 10/09/24.
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Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.