Wednesday’s action involves a pair of ALDS Game 3s.
The pregame narrative: The Cleveland Guardians have a good opportunity to get the upper hand with the Detroit Tigers lacking pitching options. Later on, I like the Kansas City Royals to win at home over the New York Yankees.
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Best bet: Royals moneyline (+100)
A lot of the reasoning behind this is the starting pitchers.
Clarke Schmidt had a good season for the Yankees overall (2.85 ERA) but comes into this start off extended rest following consecutive starts where he allowed three or more runs.
He often limits hits but has a 41st percentile walk rate (8.5%) according to Baseball Savant. His 3.75 xERA is almost 100 points higher than his actual ERA, so I do believe some good fortune was on his side this season.
Seth Lugo finished with a 3.01 ERA for the Royals, pitched 206.2 innings and has a start in these playoffs already. He worked 4.1 innings against the Orioles in the wild-card round and gave up one run.
In 112 at-bats vs. the Yankees offence, Lugo has held the Bronx Bombers to 25 hits (.223 batting average).
That includes Aaron Judge being 0-for-8 off Lugo in his career. In my view, the Yankees are more likely to struggle on Wednesday.
Key stat: The Royals lineup is 21-for-58 off of Schmidt (.362 BA).
Quick pick
Guardians moneyline (-113): We don’t know who’s starting for the Tigers, but we do know it’s not Tarik Skubal. That’s the important part.
Detroit has done well using basically one starting pitcher this postseason … but how long can that last?
We saw the downside of this approach in Game 1 when the Guardians smacked the Tigers, 7-0, and scored three first-inning runs off of makeshift starter Tyler Holton.
Cleveland will turn to Alex Cobb for this start. He was effective after returning from injury in early August, pitching 16.1 innings and recording a 2.78 ERA before returning to the injured list with a blister on his throwing hand.
It’s not clear what his workload will be but if we’re headed for a bullpen game, I still like the Guardians. They led the majors with a 2.57 bullpen ERA this season.
Picks made at 2:29 p.m. ET on 10/08/2024.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.