The all-SoCal NLDS matchup shifts to San Diego as the Padres host the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The pregame narrative: With Michael King on the mound, I like the Padres’ chances of sending the home crowd happy. I’m also fading Walker Buehler while backing Shohei Ohtani and Fernando Tatis Jr. on the prop market in this +425 SGP.
Check out my Dodgers vs. Padres predictions for Game 3 of their NLDS matchup on Oct. 8.
Dodgers vs. Padres SGP predictions
Full MLB postseason betting markets: Click here
Parlay: Padres moneyline + Buehler under 3.5 strikeouts + Ohtani over 0.5 hits + Tatis over 0.5 runs (+425)
Padres moneyline (-157): The Padres went 19-12 this year with King on the mound, which equates to a 99-win pace. That’s great, but it probably still undersells how effective King has been lately.
In 10 starts since Aug. 1, King has a 1.92 ERA and an 11.0 K/9. That includes a start against the Dodgers to close out the regular season in which he allowed just one unearned run over 5.0 innings in a win.
San Diego is 9-6 against L.A. this year and a perfect 3-0 when King starts.
Buehler was solid in his most recent start against the Padres, but I’m not very moved. He has a 4.93 ERA and an .831 opponent OPS since coming off the injured list in August.
SGP legs
Buehler under 3.5 Ks (-235): Going deeper on Buehler, he’s not in a strong position to pile up strikeouts.
The Padres had the lowest K rate in the majors this season (17.6%), almost two full percentage points below any other club. And Buehler, with a 7.6 K/9 in 2024, doesn’t profile as a guy who can successfully buck that trend.
After all, Buehler has just three Ks over 8.1 innings against San Diego this year.
Ohtani over 0.5 hits (-220): King looks unhittable to a lot of guys right now, but Ohtani isn’t one of them.
The soon-to-be NL MVP is 6-for-14 with three homers and two doubles in this head-to-head matchup.
Given all that power production, I don’t mind Ohtani over 1.5 bases (+100) as a straight wager. But in a parlay, I’ll opt for this safer bet instead.
Ohtani posted a career-best .310 batting average this season, collecting at least one hit in 116 of 159 games (73.0%).
Tatis over 0.5 runs (-120): Tatis is off to a blazing start in the postseason, slashing .643/.722/1.429 with five extra-base hits and seven runs scored. He’s cashed this prop in all four games.
Against Buehler, who isn’t pitching anywhere near his peak this year, I think Tatis can do more damage tonight.
These two have seen plenty of each other, and Tatis is 9-for-29 (.310) with four homers in this head-to-head matchup.
The last time Tatis faced Buehler at Petco Park, he bashed a first-inning home run.
Picks made at 12:50 p.m. on 10/08/24.
Looking to get started? Sign up here.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.