As if 13 regular season games weren’t enough, the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers meet in the NLDS for the second time in three years.
The latest: San Diego won the 2022 NLDS matchup, 3-1, as the underdog and will look to repeat that narrative again. Los Angeles comes off a bye to face one of the few teams it struggled to take down during the regular season.
Check out our Padres vs. Dodgers MLB playoff betting preview and odds for the series.
Padres vs. Dodgers betting preview
Padres
Team record: 93-69
OPS: .744 (6th)
ERA: 3.86 (12th)
NLDS odds: +115
World Series odds: +550
Dodgers
Team record: 98-64
OPS: .781 (1st)
ERA: 3.90 (13th)
NLDS odds: -141
World Series odds: +315
Head-to-head stats
Finally, the Padres got the better of the Dodgers in the regular season.
San Diego went 8-5 with a +6 run differential against its SoCal adversaries, winning this NL West season series for the first time since 2010.
Los Angeles got the last laugh, though, taking two of three games at Dodger Stadium in their most recent series (Sept. 24-26).
Here are some quick betting notes from their 2024 head-to-head matchup:
- Padres covered a +1.5 spread in 9/13 games
- Average total was 9.1 runs
- Only six of 13 games totalled 8+ runs
- Padres went 4-1 at home
Ohtani in October
Welcome to postseason baseball, Shohei Ohtani.
Yes, Ohtani is finally playing October baseball in Year 7 of his MLB career (thanks for nothing, Angels).
The Dodgers’ title aspirations were likely a component of Ohtani’s free agent decision last winter, and he’s shown over and over again how he can help L.A. realize that goal.
Ohtani is on his way to a third MVP award after crafting the first 50-50 season in league history.
Against the Padres, Ohtani’s power numbers were low by his sky-high standards. He homered once and had a .522 SLG in 12 games (his season-long SLG was .646).
Key injuries
Padres SP Joe Musgrove: Musgrove exited after 3.2 innings in his Oct. 2 wild-card start against the Braves due to elbow tightness. There is serious doubt whether he’ll pitch again this postseason, let alone in the NLDS.
The right-hander acknowledged that he’s been pitching with discomfort for a couple of weeks. Against the final batter he faced on Wednesday, Musgrove threw two curveballs that registered as the slowest he’s ever thrown, according to Statcast.
San Diego has a deep pitching staff, but the likely absence of Musgrove — who has a 2.17 ERA since Aug. 12 — is notable.
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Dodgers 1B Freddie Freeman: After spraining his ankle on Sept. 26, Freeman missed the final three games of the regular season. Freeman participated in the Dodgers’ simulated game on Thursday, though he didn’t play the field or run the bases.
Though his mobility will likely be affected, Freeman is expected to be available from Game 1 onward.
Dodgers UTIL Miguel Rojas: After missing the final four games with a tear in his left adductor muscle, Rojas was a full participant in the Dodgers’ recent sim game.
Though Rojas will need surgery in the offseason, he plans to play through the injury for now and be ready for Game 1.
Padres vs. Dodgers betting preview: Batting comparison
The Dodgers have the advantage when it comes to offence, but that’s not a knock on the Padres. L.A. would have the advantage over anyone.
On a team-wide level, the Dodgers rank first in OPS (.781), wRC+ (118) and SLG (.446) while scoring the second-most runs per game (5.2).
Individually, they have four qualified hitters inside the top 20 for OPS (Ohtani, Freeman, Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernandez). San Diego has none.
The Padres’ top quartet of Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill and Jurickson Profar has plenty of power to go around, mind you.
And Luis Arraez (.318 BA) just won his third batting title in as many years.
But the biggest offensive storyline will be the efforts of Ohtani/Freeman/Betts, with the latter two having already stacked several moments of postseason glory.
Pitching comparison
Even without Musgrove, the Padres have to feel good about how their pitching stacks up in this series.
Michael King struck out 12 over seven scoreless innings in his first-ever playoff start, building on a stellar first season in San Diego.
Dylan Cease posted a 3.10 FIP this year, matching the FIP he posted in his 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up campaign.
And then there’s Yu Darvish, who missed most of the season but turned in five September starts. He had a 2.88 ERA over five postseason starts for San Diego in 2022.
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The Dodgers sure would like to have Tyler Glasnow right now and/or a vintage Clayton Kershaw.
Instead, they have Jack Flaherty, who’s been strong overall but was roughed up in his final three outings (10 ER in 14.0 IP).
For Game 1, L.A. is using Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who posted some encouraging results coming back from injury in September. But he hasn’t worked past the fifth inning or logged 80-plus pitches since June.
As for the bullpens, San Diego seems to have a slight edge.
In September, the Padres had the fifth-best bullpen ERA (3.06) despite ranking 17th in xFIP (4.08). In the same timeframe, the Dodgers ranked 11th in ERA (3.51) and 24th in xFIP (4.29)
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.