NFL Week 5 kicks off with an NFC South clash between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons.
The pregame narrative: Both of Atlanta’s wins came by ultra-thin margins, which is why I’m content to back Tampa Bay on an alt spread. I’m also backing Cade Otton and Drake London to contribute for their respective teams in the receiving game.
Check out our Buccaneers vs. Falcons predictions for the Thursday Night Football matchup on Oct. 3.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons SGP predictions
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Parlay: Buccaneers +3.5 + Otton over 24.5 receiving yards + London over 49.5 receiving yards (+285)
Buccaneers +3.5 (-159): Atlanta earned some respect last week with its last-second win over the New Orleans Saints. But I don’t have any confidence in the Falcons beating a solid team by a decent margin.
All four of the Falcons’ games were decided by a single possession, and their two wins came by three combined points.
Tampa’s blowout home loss in Week 3 against the Broncos is difficult to make sense of, but the team has three encouraging results in its other matchups:
- 17-point win vs. Commanders
- 4-point win at Lions
- 17-point win vs. Eagles
Last year, the Bucs and Falcons split the home-and-home, but Tampa Bay covered a +3.5 spread both times. The Bucs are 11-4 ATS as underdogs since the start of 2023.
SGP legs
Otton over 24 receiving yards (-159): Tampa Bay’s typical WR3 and WR4, Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer, were both ruled out for tonight’s game. That’ll open up some opportunities for other pass-catchers.
If you’re looking in Chris Godwin’s direction, I get it. He’s off to an excellent start and has earned an even heartier target share. But I also like the way Otton has performed lately, rebounding from a slow start.
In Weeks 1-2, Otton had just one catch on four targets for five yards. He was targeted on just 9.1% of his routes and did very little with minimal opportunities.
But in Weeks 3-4, he had 13 catches on 17 targets for 99 yards. Otton was targeted on 26.6% of his routes, per Rotowire, and saw 30-plus air yards in both games.
This is the first week that both McMillan and Palmer will be out. With that in mind, Otton should hit the 25-yard receiving mark for a third straight game.
London over 49.5 receiving yards (-210): Taking Buccaneers +3.5 shouldn’t discourage anyone from backing London on a modest yardage prop like this.
We haven’t seen London break out yet this season, but his volume in recent weeks has created a steady floor from which to operate.
From Weeks 2-4, London has six-plus catches and 50-plus yards each game. He has 28 targets in that span, maxing out at 12 targets — and a whopping 164 air yards — last week.
London torched the Bucs at home last season, turning 11 targets into 10 catches and 172 yards. He now has 346 receiving yards in his past three games against Tampa and has hit the 50-yard milestone each time.
Picks made at 11:50 a.m. on 10/03/24
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.