One running back, one quarterback and a tight end are featured in this week’s NFL prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Josh Jacobs has a favourable matchup to feast this weekend. Elsewhere, I like Kyler Murray and Brock Bowers to have productive outings.
Check out the best NFL Week 5 prop bets for the upcoming games.
NFL Week 5 prop bets
Go to full NFL Week 5 betting markets.
Best bet: Jacobs over 62.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Rams’ defence has been downright bad this season. L.A. allows the second-most scrimmage yards per game (398.5) along with the most rushing yards (165.5).
Jacobs has surpassed this total in two of four games this season while averaging a very respectable 4.6 yards per carry.
Last week, the Packers’ tailback had 51 yards but had a season-low nine carries due to the Minnesota Vikings building a big lead early.
In the other three games, Jacobs averaged 20.7 carries out of the backfield. Barring another early deficit, I fully expect him to get back into the range of 15-20 touches.
Look at how other starting tailbacks fared against the Rams and you’ll see why I’m bullish on Jacobs.
D’Andre Swift of the Chicago Bears ran for 93 yards on 16 rushes last week. He’d only managed 68 yards on 37 carries (1.84 YPC) across the first three games.
Jordan Mason recorded 77 yards on 19 carries in Week 3 and James Conner sparked the Rams’ defence for 122 yards on 21 attempts in Week 2.
There isn’t a better matchup on the table right now for a rusher.
Key stat: In one career game vs. Los Angeles, Jacobs had 99 rushing yards on 27 attempts.
Quick picks
Murray over 29.5 rushing yards (-114): The 49ers only allow 10.3 rush yards per game to quarterbacks. However, this stat requires more context.
Three of the four games have been against Jacoby Brissett, Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers — a few of the least mobile QBs in the NFL right now.
Sam Darnold, who’s more inclined to use his legs when needed, finished with 32 yards on 5 rushes against San Fran in Week 2.
Murray is not only much more mobile than the three veteran QBs but he’s got Darnold’s number in the speed department, too.
The Cards’ signal-caller has cleared this line in three of four games this season and is averaging 41.0 rushing yards per game.
Bowers over 45.5 receiving yards (-115): The rookie tight end continues to play a large role in the Raiders’ offence.
After four weeks, Bowers leads Las Vegas in receptions (20) and yards (216) and now he has a great matchup.
The Denver Broncos give up 5.2 catches per game to opposing tight ends. Over the last two weeks, Denver has allowed 13 receptions to tight ends. Cade Otton of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished with 47 yards on seven catches in Week 3.
Bowers is one of two tight ends in the league to lead his team in receptions/receiving yards and has the benefit of lining up on the inside, away from star corner Pat Surtain.
Picks made at 3:15 p.m. ET on 10/03/2024.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.