Tonight, the New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers play for a spot in the NLDS.
The pregame narrative: With two solid pitchers getting the call today, I’m backing the under on a teased-up total. Also, take Starling Marte and Brice Turang to both record a hit as part of this +390 parlay.
Check out my Mets vs. Brewers predictions for Game 3 of their wild-card series on Oct. 3.
Mets vs. Brewers SGP predictions
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Parlay: Under 8.5 runs + Marte to record a hit + Turang to record a hit (+390)
Under 8.5 runs (-159): In the highest-scoring wild-card series, it might seem odd to take the under. But hear me out.
Jose Quintana gets the start for the Mets, and he was electric during the final stretch of the regular season.
Over his last six starts, Quintana allowed three earned runs in 36.1 innings pitched (0.74 ERA). He held opponents to a .197 batting average in that span.
Tobias Myers hasn’t been as consistent for the Brewers, but he did just toss four scoreless innings of one-hit ball against the Mets at the end of September.
The rookie finished with a solid 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 27 outings.
When these two took the mound against one another on Sept. 28, they combined to allow just two runs and the game finished with six runs total.
SGP legs
Marte to record a hit (-177): Marte is the lone player on the Mets to have a hit off Myers. The outfielder is 1-for-2 against the righty and is coming off a two-hit night in Game 2.
Marte may only have a .266 BA, but Baseball Savant lists his xBA at .290. That ranks in the 94th percentile. He also performs better on the road, carrying a .285 average in that scenario this season.
Myers throws his four-seam fastball 40.1% of the time. That is a pitch type that Marte hits .316 against. All signs point to the Mets outfielder having an efficient night.
Turang to record a hit (-167): This guy is on a heater.
Turang has recorded a hit in five straight games and is 10-for-21 during that stretch. In this series, he has five hits in eight at-bats — including three doubles.
The Brewers second baseman will face Quintana for the first time in his career but his recent results overall inspire confidence.
Turang vs. Quintana is a lefty-on-lefty matchup, but Quintana surprisingly allows a higher average to left-handed batters (.255) than right-handed batters (.231).
Picks made at 9:01 a.m. on 10/03/24.
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Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.