The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons kick off Week 5 with an NFC South showdown.
The pregame narrative: Baker Mayfield has the Buccaneers buzzing atop the division. I want in on Tampa Bay’s team total against a defence that has looked iffy at best.
Check out my Buccaneers vs. Falcons best bet for the Week 5 Thursday Night Football matchup.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons best bet
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Best Bet: Buccaneers over 20.5 points (-124)
It’s time we put some respect on the Buccaneers’ name.
Tampa Bay is 3-1 with impressive wins on its ledger. It just rolled the Philadelphia Eagles, 33-16, and beat the Lions in Detroit two weeks before that. Even its 37-20 season-opening win over the Washington Commanders has aged well.
Sure, the Eagles were missing a bunch of key players on offence, but why does that matter? This isn’t a spread or moneyline bet. If anything, Atlanta’s offence showing up would lead to a favourable game script.
Mayfield just threw for 347 yards and accounted for three TDs in a game where Tampa Bay was up 24-0 halfway through the second quarter.
The Bucs are more than capable of scoring 21 points over the full 60 minutes.
Divisional matchups are always touch but I don’t have much faith in the Falcons’ defence. They rank a pedestrian 19th in yards allowed per game (336.5) and sit 23rd in defensive EPA per play (+0.028), according to RBSDM.com.
Atlanta held the Pittsburgh Steelers under this mark in Week 1 but still lost when Chris Boswell kicked six field goals for an 18-10 win. Since then, the Falcons’ opponents have scored 21+ points in every game.
Key stat: Atlanta has allowed 21+ points in five of its last six games dating back to 2023.
Picks made at 9:09 a.m. ET 10/01/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.