The San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves wrap up Day 1 of the MLB playoffs.
The pregame narrative: Atlanta squeaked into the wild-card round with a Game 162 win over the New York Mets. I expect San Diego to win the series opener and am also backing Michael King and Matt Olson on the prop market.
Check out my Braves vs. Padres predictions for Game 1 of their wild-card series on Oct. 1.
Braves vs. Padres SGP predictions
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Parlay: Padres moneyline + King over 4.5 strikeouts + Olson to record a hit (+300)
Padres moneyline (-177): Yesterday, the Braves were forced to throw everything at the wall in hopes of earning a split with the New York Mets.
Atlanta got the job done but is now on its back foot against the red-hot Padres.
Chris Sale — the soon-to-be NL Cy Young winner — won’t start due to back tightness. Max Fried gets the ball tomorrow and Reynaldo Lopez is lined up for a potential Game 3. That means the Braves are going to a bullpen game, one day after their bullpen threw 7.0 innings.
Even if Fried or Lopez were going, I would like San Diego’s chances with King pitching.
The Padres’ ace has a 2.15 ERA since the all-star game while holding opponents to a measly .300 slugging percentage. His team is 7-4 in those starts.
SGP legs
King over 4.5 strikeouts (-235): Our Chris Toman took the over on King’s standard 5.5-strikeout line as his best prop bet of the day. I’m on board with that and am teasing it down for some insurance.
The righty wasn’t just a throw-in for superstar Juan Soto. He’s an elite swing-and-miss arm who is going up against a Braves team with the 10th-highest strikeout rate against righties.
King’s 27.7% K rate ranks in MLB’s 81st percentile.
He routinely pitches deep into ballgames and has cleared this mark in 25 of 31 appearances on the season (80.6%). Managers tend to have a shorter leash on their starters during the postseason but King’s stuff is strong enough that it shouldn’t matter.
From his time as a reliever on the New York Yankees, King has a 28.6% K rate against San Diego’s current lineup (28 plate appearances).
Olson to record a hit (-141): Olson is strikeout prone, but he’s also on a nice little heater.
The first baseman has a hit in 26 of his last 34 games and is batting .331/.425/.621 in that span. He’s recorded a knock in seven of his last eight and had a knock in both legs of yesterday’s doubleheader.
Olson is a lefty bat that was struggling to hit righty pitching at the beginning of the season — but lately, the script has flipped.
He is batting .338 against righties since the beginning of September.
Picks made at 1:45 p.m. on 10/01/24.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.