It’s a surprise versus a stalwart in the first MLB playoff game of 2024, as the Detroit Tigers open up the wild-card round against the Houston Astros.
The pregame narrative: Detroit is in its first playoff series in a decade, while Houston is looking for its eighth straight run to the ALCS or further. For Game 1 this afternoon, I’ve got prop bets on both starters (Framber Valdez, Tarik Skubal) and Houston leadoff man Jose Altuve.
Check out my Tigers vs. Astros prop picks for Game 1 of their wild-card series on Oct. 1.
Tigers vs. Astros prop picks
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Best Bet: Valdez over 16.5 outs (-127)
I’m trying to figure out why this line is so low.
Valdez has averaged 18.9 outs per game this season and cashed this bet in 22 of 28 outings. He’s also tossed seven-plus innings in each of his past four starts against the Tigers dating back to September 2022.
At 17.5 outs, I’d still be taking the over with Valdez. So I’m definitely on the over at this reduced line.
My guess for why this line is set at 16.5 is that the Astros haven’t played since Saturday. Back-to-back off-days are basically unheard of in an MLB season, so Houston’s relief corps will be much better rested than usual.
But Valdez can clear this outs line without too much strain. He does it all the time.
Valdez is also on fire right now, with a 1.65 ERA and .161 opponent batting average since the start of August (nine starts).
The Tigers’ current lineup has a .308 SLG against Valdez over 80 plate appearances. If he’s rolling again today, why pull him early?
Key stat: Valdez has gone over 16.5 outs in 14 consecutive starts, averaging 19.5 outs in that span.
Quick pick
Altuve over 0.5 runs (+125): Today’s matchup has a 6.5-run total as a pair of aces go at it. But someone has to score, and I think Altuve is a worthwhile option at this price.
Houston’s leadoff man scored 94 runs in 151 starts in his ninth all-star season. The three-time batting champ scored in 13 of 25 games to close out the season.
Skubal is tough on everybody, but Altuve has found success in this matchup before. Altuve, who has an .899 OPS against lefties in his career, is 4-for-11 with a home run, two doubles and a walk against Skubal.
Altuve doubled twice and scored when he last faced Skubal in June.
Skubal under 5.5 Ks (+120): Fading Skubal isn’t for the faint of heart, especially on a 5.5-strikeout line. The Cy-Young-to-be has cashed the over in six straight outings … and in 28 of 31 this year.
But Skubal also had his lowest strikeout total of the year against the Astros, fanning just two hitters over 6.1 innings against them on June 14. And his K rate against Houston’s active lineup (18.9% in 74 PAs) is well below his season-long K rate (30.3%).
Skubal has the stuff to make me look foolish for taking this under. But the Astros have some of the most disciplined bats in the majors, and they’ve proven that against Detroit’s superstar lefty.
Houston has the second-lowest K rate against lefties and overall this season.
Picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET 10/01/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.