It’s a busy weekend across soccer with another international break looming.
Pregame narrative: The Champions League has begun, too, making teams’ schedules even more congested. Here, we’ll look at one upset pick from each of the following leagues: EPL, Bundesliga, and Ligue 1.
Check out the best three soccer upset picks for the upcoming week.
Soccer upset picks
EPL prediction: Brighton (2-3-1) over Tottenham (3-1-2)
When: Oct. 6: 11:30 a.m. ET
Brighton’s adaptive and disciplined style under new manager Fabian Hurzeler has become a problem for teams early in the season, beating the likes of Manchester United and drawing with Arsenal.
It has controlled the ball well in most situations and its average possession per match is at nearly 60 percent. Prior to Saturday’s mistake-heavy game against Chelsea, it often led to minimal chances for opposing teams, ranking near the top of the league in terms of expected goals allowed.
Tottenham has stayed much the same from last campaign, with a high-pressing team and an always-attacking mentality being the building blocks of Ange Postecoglou’s tactics.
The Spurs are producing plenty of opportunities, but that hasn’t shown up in actual goals, which is the most important thing.
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Helping Brighton, Tottenham had trips to Manchester United and Ferencvaros before this match. Brighton is home, rested and in a great spot for three points if Tottenham can’t convert its opportunities, which has been its problem in almost every match in the early season.
Brighton will hope to make the most of what will be limited chances, similar to its win against Manchester United when it bagged a late winner despite having less of the ball.
Also important to winning this game will be to reduce mistakes, something that may have given the Seagulls nightmares after Cole Palmer’s four-goal performance.
Bundesliga upset pick
Prediction: Union Berlin (2-2-1) over Borussia Dortmund (3-1-1)
When: Oct. 5: 9:30 a.m. ET
Union Berlin has been one of the strongest defensive teams in the Bundesliga to begin the campaign, a far cry from its awful defensive form last season.
Already with a clean sheet at RB Leipzig, it seems ready to contend for a European spot again.
Berlin has been mostly comfortable playing without the ball, so against a highly possessive Borussia Dortmund squad, it could succeed if able to keep BVB at bay and not allow many touches around the box.
Dortmund has had an up-and-down start to their season and the recent 5-1 loss to Stuttgart showed it at its worst.
Even last week, BVB went down two goals to lowly Bochum before making a change and ultimately winning 4-2 with three second-half goals. Of course, that game was at home. This one is in Berlin and they won’t have the Yellow Wall to cheer them on in case they go down a goal again.
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Playing on the road, anything can happen, and then you throw in Tuesday’s Champions League match for Dortmund, home against Celtic, which means rotation is always possible.
Union aren’t exactly contending for a top-four spot like they did two seasons ago, but their ability to defend in front of the net should prove key against top teams in the league like Dortmund. Playing at home, three points will be possible, especially against a team that is struggling to keep clean sheets.
Soccer upset picks: Ligue 1
Prediction: Nantes over Lyon
When: Oct. 6: 9:00 a.m. ET
Nantes has been one of the surprise teams to start the Ligue 1 season with the recent loss to St. Etienne being the early blemish on its record.
The team’s success has been fueled by a stout defence that breaks on a quick counter with pace in the attack, conceding less than one goal per match in the early stages. In this spot, it faces a Lyon team that’s struggled on both ends of the pitch, creating the perfect cocktail for an upset on the road.
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Lyon has had maybe the toughest opening schedule which includes games against Marseille, Monaco and Lens, so its struggles can be attributed to that. Still, it is allowing goals in bunches and has already been held scoreless multiple times.
Making matters more difficult, Lyon played at Rangers on Thursday in the Europa League, so it could have some tired legs, something Nantes won’t have to worry about.
If Lyon is a bit slow, that could be the perfect opening for Nantes to steal a point or three.
Player to pop: Vinicius Junior
Vinicius is in a great spot to produce ahead of the international break, home against a defence-optional Villarreal team.
Kylian Mbappe is likely to remain out due to injury, which should mean more opportunities for Vinicius on the left wing. Villarreal has already allowed five goals to Barcelona and three to Celta Vigo, so its backline hasn’t had the most success in opening the campaign.
Vinicius has had a decent start to the season playing alongside Mbappe and will be first up if Real Madrid gets another penalty kick on Saturday.
And even without Mbappe, Real Madrid isn’t lacking talent, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team rack up goals in this spot. If that’s the case, Vinicius seems most likely to score or assist coming in off his favoured left wing.
