The Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions meet for the second game on Monday’s NFL doubleheader.
The pregame narrative: Seattle is undefeated but I think Detroit is the much better team. Back the Lions ATS alongside player prop bets on Sam LaPorta and Geno Smith.
Check out our Seahawks vs. Lions predictions for the matchup on Sept. 30.
Seahawks vs. Lions SGP predictions
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Parlay: Seahawks -3.5 + LaPorta over 39.5 receiving yards + Smith over 199.5 passing yards (+410)
Seahawks -3.5 (-110): I’m not bought in on Seattle just yet.
The Seahawks have looked good, don’t get me wrong, but they haven’t had to face an elite offence.
They toppled Bo Nix in his first career start in Week 1 and were taken to overtime by Jacoby Brissett and the New England Patriots in Week 2. Seattle blew out the Skylar Thompson-led Miami Dolphins last Sunday, but is that really impressive?
The Lions in Detroit represent a different test for Mike Macdonald and Co.
Detroit is coming off its best season in the last 30 years and is 2-1 with a pair of wins over respectable opponents. Its loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was somewhat fluky as the Lions out-gained their opponents by 247 yards.
Dan Campbell’s squad is an NFL-best 14-7 ATS at home over the last three seasons. I’m happy to back the Lions with a field goal and a hook.
SGP legs
LaPorta over 39.5 receiving yards (+108): This is a manageable line for one of the league’s best tight ends.
Seattle’s secondary has been elite so far. It allows the fewest passing yards per game and has the second-best defensive EPA per dropback, per RBSDM.com.
But again, it hasn’t faced a gunslinger like Jared Goff yet. And also, the team isn’t great at covering tight ends. Devon Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen are shutdown corners but they’ll be tasked with slowing down Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
That should allow Laporta — who ranked fifth in targets among tight ends last season — to eat.
Seattle has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends this season.
Smith over 199.5 passing yards (-455): In my mind, Seattle should be chasing Detroit all game — a game script like that would work heavily in Smith’s favour.
But even if it’s a close one, this line should be a cinch.
Smith threw for 289 yards last week and 327 yards the week before that. He’s completing passes at a 74.8% clip this year and Seattle’s pass-play percentage (59.68) is in the upper third of the NFL.
Detroit’s defence is good but the secondary is certainly its weakness. It ranks 20th in defensive EPA per dropback and has allowed 216.7 passing yards per game.
Smith has recorded 200-plus passing yards in seven of his last 10 starts.
Picks made at 10:47 a.m. on 09/29/24
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.