For most teams, today marks the conclusion of their season. That means it’s the last chance to bet on a full slate of MLB props.
The pregame narrative: It won’t be the last chance to bet on Luis Arraez, whose Padres are through to the postseason. But it might not be a common occurrence to see his run prop at such an enticing price moving forward, so I’m on that today along with plays on Shohei Ohtani and Logan Gilbert.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 29.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Arraez over 0.5 runs (+110)
As a general concept, one of my absolute favourite MLB prop bets is backing the leadoff hitter on the visiting team to score.
Arraez fits that mould, and he’s facing a pitcher who has struggled to get him out.
Brandon Pfaadt is on the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks today, and Arraez is 9-for-13 (.692) with a double against him.
This will be San Diego’s fourth matchup against Pfaadt in 2024, much to the chagrin of Arizona’s right-hander. He’s allowed a .337 BA (35-for-95) to the current Padres lineup.
Pfaadt hasn’t seen the Padres since before the all-star break, mind you, but it’s not as if he’s pitching better lately against other squads.
His past seven starts have been a nightmare: 8.53 ERA, .350 opponent BA, .960 opponent OPS. Pfaadt has allowed four-plus runs in five of those seven outings … despite getting through the sixth inning just once.
So it’s a Grade-A matchup for Arraez, who’s on his way to a third batting title in as many seasons.
As a lefty hitter, Arraez also has the platoon advantage against Pfaadt. Arraez has an .826 OPS versus RHPs in his career and a .681 OPS versus LHPs.
Arraez has scored in 13 of his past 24 starts, posting a .404 on-base percentage in that span.
Key stat: In Pfaadt’s three starts against the Padres this year, Arraez has reached base nine times and scored four runs.
Quick pick
Ohtani over 1.5 hits (+102): You rarely see a multi-hit prop that’s flirting with a price on the wrong side of even money. Ohtani is just that good.
I completely understand the upcharge here given what Ohtani has accomplished overall at Coors Field and lately against all opponents.
In the thin-air environment of Coors, Ohtani is 21-for-54 (.420) in his career and 14-for-28 this season. He cashed this bet in the first two games of this series, collecting six hits in 11 plate appearances.
Ohtani now has multiple hits in four straight games, as well as in 19 of his past 35 overall. Truly absurd stuff.
Rockies starter Ryan Feltner has been decent since the start of August (3.73 ERA, .245 opponent BA), but this isn’t about him. This is about backing the top ballplayer on Earth in the league’s most friendly offensive venue.
Gilbert under 7.5 Ks (-108): Gilbert struck out nine batters the last time he faced the Oakland A’s, but I still think the under is the right way to go on this line today.
The Seattle Mariners are out of playoff contention, so there’s no need to push Gilbert to hard. He’s already past 200.0 innings and 200 strikeouts, so we aren’t on any type of milestone watch today.
All in all, this is a number Gilbert doesn’t usually clear. He’s averaging 6.7 Ks per start this season — still very strong — while going under 7.5 Ks in 21 of 32 outings.
Since the all-star break, Oakland has a 23.0% K rate, which is the 16th-highest in the majors. Not exactly a plus matchup.
Gilbert can still carve up today’s opponent without hitting the over on his strikeout total.
Picks made at 10:15 a.m. ET on 09/29/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.